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Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 - FC Bayern München

04/25/2026, 01:30 PM

3 : 4
Expected Goals
FSV Mainz 05
1.4
Total xG
3.1
FC Bayern München
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FM0FBM

FSV Mainz 05

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.38
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.09
J. Lee not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)

FC Bayern München

Attack strength (1.49x league average)
+0.11
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap)
+0.07
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Michael Olise on the bench (12 goals, 18 assists)
Serge Gnabry not in squad (8 goals, 6 assists)
Joshua Kimmich on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists)
Josip Stanisic on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Jonathan Tah on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
Weak away record (2.3 vs 3.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Bayern München: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    FC Bayern München: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 3
    FSV Mainz 05: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 4
    FSV Mainz 05 with Armindo Sieb: 5.2 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    FC Bayern München: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

26%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis assigns a 43% win probability to FC Bayern München
  • Current Form: FC Bayern München is in outstanding form with 5 consecutive wins, while Mainz 05 has only recorded 2 wins in their last 5 games
  • Bayern's Tactical Strength: FC Bayern München showed a possession-dominant style (67% possession) and averaged 8.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, highlighting their offensive power
Risk Factors
  • Reduced Squad Strength: For FC Bayern München, only 66% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, as key players like Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry, and Joshua Kimmich are not in the lineup
  • Historical Draw: The last head-to-head match on December 14, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw, suggesting potential resilience from Mainz
Overview

FSV Mainz 05 (10th place, 34 points) host league leaders FC Bayern München (1st place, 79 points) at the Mewa Arena

The Bundesliga match takes place on April 25, 2026, 3:30 PM

Mainz aims to improve its mid-table position, while Bayern looks to solidify its top spot

Form

FSV Mainz 05's current form across all competitions shows 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses (WWLLD)

Their last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Borussia Mönchengladbach

FC Bayern München is in top form with 5 consecutive wins (WWWWW)

Bayern recently defeated VfB Stuttgart 4-2 and Real Madrid 4-3

Statistics

Mainz 05 scores an average of 1.21 goals per home game and concedes 1.29 goals

Mainz kept 2 clean sheets in home matches

FC Bayern München shows a strong offense away from home with an average of 3.77 goals scored and concedes 1.08 goals

Bayern kept 6 clean sheets in away matches

At the Mewa Arena, the last 5 games saw an average of 2.4 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 2 of these 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, FC Bayern München recorded 3 wins, while Mainz 05 won once and one match ended in a draw

The goal difference of 18:5 clearly favors Bayern

The last encounter on December 14, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw at Bayern's home ground

Key Players

Nadiem Amiri (Mainz 05) demonstrates his scoring prowess with 11 goals and 2 assists this season, although his form has slightly declined recently

Phillip Tietz (Mainz 05) scored 3 goals and 2 assists this season and has 2 goals in his last 5 games, indicating a rising form trend

Kaishu Sano (Mainz 05) is a midfielder with 1 goal and 1 assist this season, scoring once in his last 5 appearances

Luis Díaz (FC Bayern München) is Bayern's top scorer with 15 goals and 13 assists, but his form shows a slight decline

Nicolas Jackson (FC Bayern München) contributed 6 goals and 1 assist, with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 2 appearances, showing a rising form

Raphaël Guerreiro (FC Bayern München) has 5 goals and 2 assists this season, with his performance of 2 goals in 3 recent games indicating a rising trend

Goalkeepers

For Mainz 05, Daniel Batz is in goal, having contributed to his team keeping 3 clean sheets in 18 appearances this season

For FC Bayern München, Jonas Urbig is the designated goalkeeper, and the team has recorded a total of 11 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Mewa Arena has seen an average of 2.4 total goals per match in the last 5 games

The home advantage for Mainz 05 is reflected in an average of 1.21 home goals scored and 1.29 home goals conceded per game

FC Bayern München is offensively strong away from home with 3.77 goals scored and a solid defense of 1.08 goals conceded per away game

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