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Bundesliga

SC Freiburg - VfL Wolfsburg

05/03/2026, 05:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
SC Freiburg
2.6
Total xG
3.4
VfL Wolfsburg
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

2:1

9%

3:0

9%

1:1

8%

3:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SFVW

SC Freiburg

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.27
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 17, 9 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.06
Igor Matanovic on the bench (8 goals, 1 assists)
Derry Scherhant on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Lukas Kübler on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Strong home record (2 vs 1.6 goals/match)

VfL Wolfsburg

Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.76
Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.73
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 8, 9 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Mohamed Amoura on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists)
Aaron Zehnter on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SC Freiburg with Yuito Suzuki: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    VfL Wolfsburg with Patrick Wimmer: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    SC Freiburg: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    SC Freiburg: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    SC Freiburg: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

17%

Away Win

10%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 3.5

55%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

90%

Away or Draw

27%

No Draw

83%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Favorites Role: Mathematical analysis predicts an SC Freiburg home win with 73% probability
  • Home Strength vs. Away Weakness: Freiburg concedes only Ø 1.0 goals at home, while Wolfsburg allows Ø 2.33 goals away
  • Form and Trend: Freiburg won 3 of their last 5 games, while Wolfsburg recorded 3 losses in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Short Recovery Time: SC Freiburg has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Limited Goal Production: SC Freiburg's goal production has recently stalled (1.4), with a season average of 1.6
  • Defensive Weakness: Wolfsburg concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
Overview

SC Freiburg (8th place, 43 points) host VfL Wolfsburg (17th place, 25 points) at the Europa-Park Stadion

Bundesliga match on May 3, 2026, 7:30 PM

Freiburg enters this encounter as the clear favorite against a relegation-threatened opponent

Form

Freiburg's form across all competitions is WWWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

In their last five matches, SC Freiburg recorded 3 wins and 2 losses

Wolfsburg's form across all competitions is LLLWD

VfL Wolfsburg achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five games

SC Freiburg's goal production has recently stalled (1.4), while the season average is 1.6 goals

VfL Wolfsburg's form is stable, consistently scoring around 1.4 goals per game

Statistics

SC Freiburg averages 1.42 goals scored per game and concedes 1.68 goals

At home, they average 1.4 goals per home game and only 1 goal conceded on average

VfL Wolfsburg averages 1.32 goals scored and concedes 2.13 goals per game

Away from home, Wolfsburg's goal average is 1.33, while they concede an average of 2.33 goals

In Freiburg's home matches, an average of 3.6 goals were scored recently

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games at the Europa-Park Stadion

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 of SC Freiburg's home matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 5 encounters between both teams

SC Freiburg won 4 of these games, VfL Wolfsburg won 1

No match ended in a draw

SC Freiburg scored a total of 10 goals, VfL Wolfsburg 7

SC Freiburg won the last encounter on December 20, 2025, with a score of 4:3

Key Players

Vincenzo Grifo is a key player for Freiburg with 7 goals and 3 assists in 30 season appearances

Johan Manzambi contributed significantly with 5 goals and 2 assists in 24 games and shows a rising form trend

Yuito Suzuki scored 4 goals and 3 assists in 24 appearances, and his form trend is also rising

Christian Eriksen is important for Wolfsburg with 3 goals and 7 assists in 28 season appearances

Dzenan Pejcinovic contributed 7 goals in 27 games

Patrick Wimmer scored 4 goals and 3 assists in 23 matches and shows an upward trend in form

Goalkeepers

Noah Atubolu, SC Freiburg's goalkeeper, played 31 season games and kept 6 clean sheets

Kamil Grabara, VfL Wolfsburg's goalkeeper, also featured in 31 matches and achieved 2 clean sheets

Influences

SC Freiburg benefits from a home advantage, averaging 1.4 home goals and conceding only 1 goal per home game

The Europa-Park Stadion tends to offer high-scoring games, with an average of 3.6 goals per match

In 60% of the last 5 home games, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%

SC Freiburg has a short rest period with 3 days since their last match

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