Bundesliga
TSG Hoffenheim - VfB Stuttgart
05/02/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.3
1.2
1:1
10%2:1
10%2:0
8%3:1
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
TSG Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart
League
The Lab
- 1TSG Hoffenheim: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2VfB Stuttgart with Jeff Chabot: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3TSG Hoffenheim: 42% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 12)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
57%
Draw
23%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
64%
Under 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
42%
Under 3.5
58%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
43%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
63%
No
37%
Key Factors
- Direct battle for European spots, both teams are tied on points
- Mathematical analysis predicts a home win for TSG Hoffenheim with a 57% probability
- VfB Stuttgart shows strong offensive performance in the last 5 games with an average of 6.6 shots on target
Overview
TSG Hoffenheim (5th place, 57 points) host VfB Stuttgart (4th place, 57 points) at the PreZero Arena
Bundesliga match on May 2, 2026, 3:30 PM
Both teams are tied on points and competing for a European qualification spot
Form
TSG Hoffenheim's form in their last five matches is LLDWW
This represents 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Their last result was a win, and the second last was also a win
VfB Stuttgart's form in their last five matches is WLWLD
This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Their last result was a draw
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
TSG Hoffenheim scores an average of 1.97 goals per game and concedes 1.45 goals per game this season
At home, they average 1.94 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per home game
VfB Stuttgart averages 2.03 goals scored and 1.39 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Stuttgart scores 2 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals
Hoffenheim has kept 6 clean sheets this season, compared to Stuttgart's 11
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 22 of Hoffenheim's matches and in 22 of Stuttgart's matches
In the PreZero Arena, the last 5 matches averaged 2.4 goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there was 1 win for TSG Hoffenheim, 1 win for VfB Stuttgart, and 3 draws
TSG Hoffenheim scored a total of 5 goals, while VfB Stuttgart scored 7 goals
The last encounter on December 20, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw
The recent head-to-head record is even
Key Players
Andrej Kramaric is a key player for TSG Hoffenheim with 12 goals and 5 assists, his form is stable
Fisnik Asllani is the top attacker with 10 goals and 7 assists, his form is declining
Bazoumana Touré is an important playmaker with 3 goals and 8 assists, his form is stable
Deniz Undav is VfB Stuttgart's top scorer with 18 goals and 6 assists, his form is declining
Chris Führich is in rising form with 6 goals and 6 assists
Bilal El Khannouss is an important midfielder with 4 goals and 5 assists, his form is stable
Not selected for VfB Stuttgart are Maximilian Mittelstädt (5G/4A), Tiago Tomás (4G/3A), and Chema Andrés (2G/0A)
Goalkeepers
Goalkeeper Oliver Baumann of TSG Hoffenheim made 31 appearances this season and achieved 6 clean sheets
Alexander Nübel of VfB Stuttgart also played in 31 games and recorded 11 clean sheets
Influences
TSG Hoffenheim demonstrates solid home strength with an average of 1.94 home goals scored and 1.12 home goals conceded
The PreZero Arena has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches
The pitch surface is grass