Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach - Borussia Dortmund
05/03/2026, 03:40 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.3
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
10%0:1
10%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Borussia Dortmund
League
The Lab
- 1Borussia Mönchengladbach: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2Borussia Mönchengladbach with Lukas Ullrich: 5.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Borussia Dortmund: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 16)
- 4Borussia Dortmund with Carney Chukwuemeka: 4.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Borussia Dortmund: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
32%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Uncertain match outcome: Mathematical analysis predicts a very close match with home win (34%), draw (32%), and away win (34%)
- Form discrepancy: Borussia Dortmund shows better form with 3 wins in their last 5 games compared to Borussia Mönchengladbach with 0 wins and 4 draws
- Head-to-head record: Borussia Dortmund dominated the last 5 encounters with 4 wins versus 0 for Gladbach
Risk Factors
- Limited data availability for total duels in the last 5 games for both teams
- Borussia Mönchengladbach's seasonal defense with an average of 1.61 goals conceded per game
Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach (14th place, 32 points) hosts Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 67 points) at Stadion im Borussia-Park. The Bundesliga match takes place on May 3, 2026, 5:30 PM. Dortmund is fighting for Champions League spots, while Gladbach is in a relegation battle, just above the playoff zone.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach shows poor form with DDLDD in their last five games, corresponding to 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). Their last result was a draw. Borussia Dortmund is in better shape with WWLLW, recording 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches. Dortmund won their last game.
Statistics
Borussia Mönchengladbach averages 1.16 goals scored per game and concedes 1.61 goals this season. At home, the average is 1.19 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded. Borussia Dortmund is stronger offensively with an average of 2.1 goals per game and a solid defense conceding only 1 goal per game. Away from home, Dortmund averages 2.15 goals scored and concedes 1.31 goals. This venue has seen an average of 2.2 goals in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia Dortmund dominated with 4 wins compared to 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, with 1 draw. Dortmund scored a total of 12 goals, Gladbach 6 goals. The last encounter on December 19, 2025, ended with a 0:2 away win for Borussia Dortmund.
Key Players
For Borussia Mönchengladbach, Haris Tabakovic is the top scorer with 11 season goals and 2 assists, holding an average rating of 6.92. Franck Honorat contributed 2 goals and 6 assists. Defender Joe Scally also showed offensive presence with 2 goals and 3 assists. For Borussia Dortmund, Serhou Guirassy is the most dangerous attacker with 15 goals and 2 assists. Julian Ryerson is a key playmaker with 14 assists, while Julian Brandt added 7 goals and 4 assists.
Goalkeepers
Moritz Nicolas is Borussia Mönchengladbach's goalkeeper with 11 clean sheets this season and an average rating of 7.13. Gregor Kobel guards Borussia Dortmund's goal, having recorded 14 clean sheets and a season rating of 6.87.
Influences
Stadion im Borussia-Park has seen an average of 2.2 total goals in the last 5 matches, with a 'both teams to score' rate of 60% and an over 2.5 goals rate of 20%. The surface is grass. Borussia Mönchengladbach averages 1.19 goals scored at home and concedes 1.5 goals. Borussia Dortmund averages 2.15 goals scored away and concedes 1.31 goals.