Bundesliga
Eintracht Frankfurt - Hamburger SV
05/02/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.8
1.0
1:1
12%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SV
League
The Lab
- 1Hamburger SV with Albert Sambi Lokonga: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Eintracht Frankfurt: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 3Eintracht Frankfurt with Ansgar Knauff: 3.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Eintracht Frankfurt: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Hamburger SV: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
56%
Draw
26%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
44%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis favors Eintracht Frankfurt with a home win probability of 56%
- Eintracht Frankfurt is strong at home, scoring an average of 1.86 goals, while Hamburger SV concedes 2.73 goals per away game
- Hamburger SV's poor form, with three consecutive losses and only one draw in their last five games, is a significant disadvantage
Risk Factors
- Eintracht Frankfurt shows a negative trend in goal production, recently at 1.4 goals compared to a season average of 1.8 goals
- Eintracht Frankfurt is missing key players Farès Chaïbi (2 goals / 9 assists) and Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab (2 goals / 4 assists), which reduces offensive power
- Hamburger SV is missing players William Mikelbrencis (0 goals / 4 assists) and Miro Muheim (0 goals / 4 assists), which could affect assist production
Overview
Eintracht Frankfurt (7th place, 43 points) hosts Hamburger SV (15th place, 31 points) at Deutsche Bank Park
Bundesliga match on May 2, 2026, 3:30 PM
Eintracht is fighting for international spots, while HSV is battling relegation
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's last five games show a form of "LDWLD" (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Their last match ended in a draw
Hamburger SV's form is "LDLLL"
HSV's last match was a loss, and they have three consecutive losses
Statistics
Eintracht Frankfurt scores an average of 1.81 goals per game and concedes 1.87 goals
In home games, Eintracht scores 1.86 goals and concedes 1.64 goals
Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.1 goals and concedes 1.61 goals
Away from home, they score an average of 1.09 goals and concede 2.73 goals
Frankfurt's home games at Deutsche Bank Park see an average of 2.8 total goals
Both teams scored in 40% of home games at Deutsche Bank Park
60% of these matches had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
There has been only one head-to-head match between Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV
This ended in a 1:1 draw on December 20, 2025
Both teams scored one goal each
The overall record is thus even
Key Players
For Eintracht Frankfurt, Jonathan Burkardt is a key player with 10 goals this season
Arnaud Kalimuendo contributed 2 goals in the last 5 games and has 6 season goals in total
Hugo Larsson showed rising form in the last 5 games with 1 goal
For Hamburger SV, Fábio Vieira is crucial with 5 goals and 5 assists this season
Robert Glatzel scored 2 goals in the last 5 games
Albert Sambi Lokonga scored once in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Michael Zetterer of Eintracht Frankfurt has kept 7 clean sheets this season
His form trend shows a rising tendency with a last average rating of 7.25
Daniel Heuer Fernandes of Hamburger SV recorded 6 clean sheets
His current average rating is 6.83, indicating a stable trend
Influences
Eintracht Frankfurt scores an average of 1.86 goals at home and concedes 1.64 goals
Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.09 goals away and concedes 2.73 goals
Matches at Deutsche Bank Park average 2.8 total goals
Both teams scored in 40% of games at Deutsche Bank Park
60% of these matches had over 2.5 goals