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Bundesliga

St. Pauli - FSV Mainz 05

05/03/2026, 01:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
St. Pauli
1.0
Total xG
2.4
FSV Mainz 05
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

11%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
SPFM0

St. Pauli

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.92
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 10, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Mathias Pereira Lage not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.1 vs 0.9 goals/match)

FSV Mainz 05

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 16, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.02
Dominik Kohr on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Pauli with Martijn Kaars: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    St. Pauli: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    FSV Mainz 05 with Sota Kawasaki: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

31%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for FSV Mainz 05 with 42% probability
  • Attacking Efficiency: FSV Mainz 05 recently shows higher shot efficiency with an average of 5.0 shots on target
  • Home Form St. Pauli: St. Pauli has a negative form trend with 0 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • St. Pauli's Form: St. Pauli's goal production has stalled, averaging 0.6 goals recently compared to 0.9 in the season average
  • Mainz's Defense: FSV Mainz 05 conceded an average of 2.0 goals in recent matches
  • Data Availability for Duels: There is limited data available for the total duels in the last 5 games
Overview

St. Pauli (16th place, 26 points) host FSV Mainz 05 (10th place, 34 points) at Millerntor-Stadion

This Bundesliga match takes place on May 3, 2026, 2:30 PM

St. Pauli are fighting for crucial points in the lower part of the table, while Mainz aim to consolidate their mid-table position

Form

St. Pauli's form is LDLDL

This corresponds to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in the last 5 games

Their last result was a loss

FSV Mainz 05's form is WLLDL

That's 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses from the last 5 matches

Their last result was also a loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

St. Pauli scores an average of 0.84 goals and concedes 1.71 goals per game this season

At home, the average is 0.83 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded

FSV Mainz 05 scores an average of 1.26 goals and concedes 1.58 goals per match

Away from home, it's 1.27 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded on average

An average of 2.6 goals are scored per game at Millerntor-Stadion

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and there were over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, there have been 2 wins for FSV Mainz 05 and 1 draw

St. Pauli has not been able to win any of these duels so far

The goal difference is 0:5 in favor of FSV Mainz 05

The last encounter ended in a 0:0 draw on December 21, 2025

Key Players

For St. Pauli, Danel Sinani (5 goals, 3 assists) and Andréas Hountondji (4 goals) are offensively relevant

Joel Chima Fujita contributed 1 goal and 3 assists

For FSV Mainz 05, Nadiem Amiri is a key player with 11 goals and 2 assists

Paul Nebel contributed 5 goals and 1 assist

Sheraldo Becker proved dangerous with 2 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Nikola Vasilj is St. Pauli's goalkeeper and achieved 5 clean sheets this season

Daniel Batz is FSV Mainz 05's goalkeeper with 3 clean sheets

Influences

St. Pauli scored an average of 0.83 goals at home and conceded 1.44 goals

FSV Mainz 05 scored 1.27 goals away and conceded 1.8 goals

An average of 2.6 goals were scored per game in the last 5 matches at Millerntor-Stadion

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games there

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