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Bundesliga

FC Union Berlin - FC Köln

05/02/2026, 01:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
FC Union Berlin
1.4
Total xG
2.5
FC Köln
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
FUBFK

FC Union Berlin

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.15
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.12
Andrej Ilic on the bench (2 goals, 9 assists)
Leopold Querfeld on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Derrick Köhn on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Christopher Trimmel on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

FC Köln

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.17
Ragnar Ache not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Jan Thielmann on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Ísak Jóhannesson not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Union Berlin: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    FC Köln with Luca Waldschmidt: 6.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    FC Union Berlin: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    FC Union Berlin with Tom Rothe: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    FC Köln: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

30%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis prediction: Union Berlin has a 42% home win probability and a 72% chance of not losing
  • Offensive form: FC Köln shows a positive attacking form development with an average of 2.0 goals recently, while Union Berlin's goal production is stagnant (0.8 goals)
  • Historical home advantage: Union Berlin has dominated recent direct home encounters, most recently winning 1:0 on December 20, 2025
Risk Factors
  • Köln's away defense: On average, FC Köln concedes 2.36 goals per away game
  • Union's defensive weakness: Union Berlin conceded an average of 2.6 goals in their last 5 games
  • Limited data availability: Information on duels is not fully available
Overview

FC Union Berlin (13th place, 32 points) host FC Köln (14th place, 31 points) at Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Bundesliga match on May 2, 2026, 3:30 PM

A crucial game in the fight for Bundesliga survival in the lower mid-table

Form

The home team, FC Union Berlin, shows the form "LDLLL"

This means 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in the last 5 games

They recently suffered 3 consecutive losses

FC Köln presents with the form "DDWDL"

This corresponds to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches

Recently, a loss after a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Union Berlin scores an average of 1.13 goals per game and concedes 1.77 goals

Köln has a season average of 1.45 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded

Union Berlin kept 6 clean sheets, Köln 3 clean sheets

At Stadion An der Alten Försterei, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the last 5 games at this stadium

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of these matches

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin secured 2 wins and FC Köln 1 win

Union Berlin scored a total of 5 goals, while Köln scored 3 goals

Union Berlin won the last encounter 1:0 on December 20, 2025

Union Berlin dominated recent encounters

Key Players

For Union Berlin, Oliver Burke, Ilyas Ansah, and Danilho Doekhi are in focus

Oliver Burke scored 1 goal in the last 5 games, his season average is 5 goals and 1 assist

Ilyas Ansah has scored 5 goals and provided 2 assists in 30 season appearances, with no goals in his last 4 games

Danilho Doekhi, a defender, has 5 season goals and scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

Not selected are Andrej Ilic (2 goals, 9 assists), Leopold Querfeld (3 goals), Derrick Köhn (1 goal, 2 assists), and Christopher Trimmel (2 assists)

For FC Köln, Said El Mala, Jakub Kamiński, and Luca Waldschmidt are to be highlighted

Said El Mala scored 11 times and provided 5 assists this season, including 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Jakub Kamiński has 7 season goals and 3 assists, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games, showing rising form

Luca Waldschmidt scored 2 goals in only 80 minutes played in the last 5 games, with a total of 5 goals and 4 assists this season

Not selected are Ragnar Ache (7 goals, 4 assists), Jan Thielmann (3 goals, 1 assist), and Ísak Jóhannesson (1 goal, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

For Union Berlin, Carl Klaus starts, having made 1 appearance this season

Marvin Schwäbe is in goal for FC Köln and has made 31 season appearances

Union Berlin recorded 6 clean sheets this season

FC Köln kept 3 clean sheets

Influences

Union Berlin scored 20 home goals and conceded 24 goals at Stadion An der Alten Försterei

The stadium shows an average of 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the last 5 home games

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