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Bundesliga

Werder Bremen - FC Augsburg

05/02/2026, 01:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Werder Bremen
1.5
Total xG
2.7
FC Augsburg
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
WBFA

Werder Bremen

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.34
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.06
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.05
Romano Schmid not in squad (3 goals, 8 assists)
Yukinari Sugawara not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists)
Justin Njinmah on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Marco Grüll on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Cameron Puertas not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
94% of goal output missing (only 5% available)

FC Augsburg

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.09
Alexis Claude-Maurice not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists)
Fabian Rieder not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Dimitrios Giannoulis not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Michael Gregoritsch not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Robin Fellhauer not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Anton Kade on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Han-Noah Massengo not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Arthur Chaves on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Werder Bremen with Senne Lynen: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    FC Augsburg with Elvis Rexhbecaj: 5.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    FC Augsburg: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Werder Bremen: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

29%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad situation for Werder Bremen: Only 6% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available, without players like Romano Schmid (3G/8A) and Justin Njinmah (5G/0A)
  • Severe personnel gaps for FC Augsburg: Only 0% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available, as key players like Alexis Claude-Maurice (5G/5A) and Fabian Rieder (6G/3A) are not in the lineup
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Werder Bremen with a probability of 42%
Risk Factors
  • FC Augsburg concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Werder Bremen concedes an average of 1.74 goals per game this season
  • FC Augsburg averaged only 38% possession in their last 5 games, potentially leading to sustained pressure
Overview

Werder Bremen (12th place, 32 points) host FC Augsburg (9th place, 37 points) at the Wohninvest Weserstadion

Bundesliga match on May 2, 2026, 3:30 PM

Both teams are in the mid-lower half of the table and aim to solidify their position

Form

Werder Bremen's form in the last 5 games is WLLWD

This equates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

FC Augsburg's form in their last 5 matches is LDDWD

This consists of 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Statistics

Werder Bremen averages 1.16 goals scored and 1.74 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded per game

FC Augsburg averages 1.26 goals scored and 1.77 goals conceded per game

In away matches, they average 1.21 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game

The Wohninvest Weserstadion sees an average of 2.8 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches (40% BTTS), and over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 out of 5 matches (60%)

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Werder Bremen secured 2 wins and FC Augsburg 1 win

2 matches ended in a draw

Werder Bremen scored 7 goals in these encounters, while FC Augsburg managed 4 goals

The last encounter on December 20, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw

Werder Bremen has been the more dominant side in recent direct clashes

Key Players

For Werder Bremen, Olivier Deman (Defender) shows a stable form trend

His average rating in the last 5 games was 6.80 compared to 6.93 for the season

For FC Augsburg, goalkeeper Finn Dahmen displays a rising form trend

His average rating increased from 6.81 for the season to 7.12 in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Werder Bremen's goalkeeper Mio Backhaus recorded 3 clean sheets in home games this season

FC Augsburg's goalkeeper Finn Dahmen achieved 5 clean sheets this season, but none in away games

Influences

Werder Bremen's home goals scored average is 1.12, with 1.62 goals conceded

FC Augsburg's away goals scored average is 1.21, with 2.0 goals conceded

The Wohninvest Weserstadion has an average of 2.8 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of matches, and 60% had over 2.5 goals

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