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Bundesliga

FC Bayern München - Heidenheim

05/02/2026, 01:30 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
FC Bayern München
2.8
Total xG
3.7
Heidenheim
0.9
Most Likely Scores

3:0

9%

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

4:0

6%

4:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FBMHEI

FC Bayern München

Attack strength (1.8x league average)
+1.25
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.59
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4.2 goals/match)
+0.20
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 18, 17 places gap)
+0.20
Michael Olise on the bench (13 goals, 18 assists)
Luis Díaz on the bench (15 goals, 13 assists)
Joshua Kimmich on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists)
Raphaël Guerreiro not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Alphonso Davies on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
54% of goal output missing (only 49% available)

Heidenheim

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.56
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.32
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.32
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 1, 17 places gap)
-0.16
Julian Niehues on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Mathias Honsak not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Bayern München: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    FC Bayern München: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 3
    Heidenheim with Adrian Beck: 7.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    FC Bayern München: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (9 points rescued)

  • 5
    Heidenheim: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

77%

Draw

15%

Away Win

8%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

28%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

92%

Away or Draw

23%

No Draw

85%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad shortage for FC Bayern München: Only 49% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available, without Michael Olise, Luis Díaz, Joshua Kimmich, Raphaël Guerreiro, and Alphonso Davies
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 77% probability of a home win for FC Bayern München, with an average of 2.84 expected goals
  • Bayern's strong home offense (Avg. 3.75 goals) meets Heidenheim's weak away defense (Avg. 2.82 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
  • FC Bayern München has only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Heidenheim concedes an average of 2.82 goals per away game
Overview

FC Bayern München (1st place, 82 points) host Heidenheim (18th place, 22 points) at the Allianz Arena

Bundesliga match on May 2, 2026, 3:30 PM

The record champions are clear league leaders, while Heidenheim are at the bottom fighting for survival

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

FC Bayern München shows strong form with 4 wins and 1 loss (WWWWL) in their last 5 matches

Their only defeat was recently against Paris Saint Germain

Heidenheim recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss (DDWLW) in their last 5 matches

They recently secured a win against St. Pauli

Bayern are currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 4.2 goals) than their season average (Avg. 3.5 goals)

Heidenheim is also currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 2.2 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.1 goals)

Statistics

FC Bayern München scores an impressive average of 3.65 goals per game and concedes 1.03 goals over the season

In home games, Bayern are even stronger with an average of 3.75 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded

Heidenheim scores an average of 1.13 goals and concedes 2.13 goals per game this season

Away from home, Heidenheim concedes an average of 2.82 goals per game

At the Allianz Arena, the last 5 matches saw an average of 5.4 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and all 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 previous head-to-head matches, FC Bayern München dominated with 4 wins compared to 1 win for Heidenheim

The goal difference is 18:7 in favor of Bayern

FC Bayern München won the last encounter away with a 4:0 score

Key Players

For FC Bayern München, Nicolas Jackson (3 goals, 1 assist in 4/5 games, Avg. 7.20), Jamal Musiala (2 goals, 3 assists in 5/5 games, Avg. 7.05), and Leon Goretzka (2 goals, 1 assist in 4/5 games, Avg. 7.06) are in good recent form

For Heidenheim, Budu Zivzivadze (3 goals in 4/5 games, Avg. 7.30), Marvin Pieringer (2 goals, 1 assist in 5/5 games, Avg. 7.25), and Patrick Mainka (1 goal, 1 assist in 5/5 games, Avg. 7.24) stand out

Goalkeepers

FC Bayern München's goalkeeper, Jonas Urbig, has a season average rating of 6.9

The team achieved 11 clean sheets this season

Heidenheim's goalkeeper, Diant Ramaj, has a season average rating of 6.82

His team recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

The Allianz Arena proves to be a high-scoring venue with an average of 5.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

FC Bayern München is strong at home with an average of 3.75 goals scored and only 0.94 goals conceded per home game

Heidenheim concedes an average of 2.82 goals per game away and scored an average of 1.09 goals away

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