Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen - RB Leipzig
05/02/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.2
1.6
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
League
The Lab
- 1Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2RB Leipzig: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- 3Bayer 04 Leverkusen with Nathan Tella: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 5RB Leipzig with Johan Bakayoko: 8.6 goals/90 min. Without: 3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
26%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Pipeline forecast: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 40% probability
- Strong form of both teams: RB Leipzig is in top form with five consecutive wins, Leverkusen also with a good recent record (3 wins, 1 draw)
- Offensive strength: According to advanced stats, both teams show positive form and are currently scoring more frequently than their season average (Leverkusen 2.6 vs 1.9, Leipzig 2.8 vs 2.1)
Risk Factors
- The high probability of both teams scoring (66%) and over 2.5 goals (63%) suggests an open game
- RB Leipzig's flawless form (5 consecutive wins) could challenge Leverkusen's home strength
Overview
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6th place, 55 points) host RB Leipzig (3rd place, 62 points) at the BayArena
Bundesliga match on May 2, 2026, 6:30 PM
Leverkusen is fighting for European spots, while Leipzig aims to secure Champions League qualification
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen shows a form of DWWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) across all competitions
In their last five matches, they recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
RB Leipzig boasts a perfect form of WWWWW
Leipzig won all of their last five matches in a row
Statistics
Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored an average of 2.00 goals per game this season and conceded 1.35 goals
At home, they averaged 2.06 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded
RB Leipzig also scored an average of 2.00 goals per game and conceded 1.23 goals
Away from home, Leipzig scored an average of 2.00 goals and conceded 1.58 goals
At the BayArena, the last 5 matches saw an average of 3.6 goals per game
In all of these 5 matches, both teams scored, while only 2 of these 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, there were 3 wins for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 1 win for RB Leipzig, and 1 draw
Bayer Leverkusen scored 13 goals, Leipzig 10 goals
The last encounter was won by Leverkusen with a 3:1 score on December 20, 2025
Key Players
For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Patrik Schick with 13 goals and 3 assists, and Alejandro Grimaldo with 8 goals and 7 assists are key players
Aleix GarcĂa also proved to be a strong performer with 2 goals and 6 assists
For RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner with 12 goals and 8 assists, Yan Diomande with 12 goals and 7 assists, and RĂŽmulo with 9 goals and 5 assists stand out
Patrik Schick and Alejandro Grimaldo show a positive form trend
Goalkeepers
In goal for Bayer 04 Leverkusen is Mark Flekken, who featured in 21 season appearances
The home team kept 8 clean sheets this season
RB Leipzig's goalkeeper is Maarten Vandevoordt, who participated in 10 season appearances
The away team recorded 11 clean sheets this season
Influences
The BayArena saw an average of 3.6 goals per game in the last five matches
Both teams scored in all of these matches
Bayer 04 Leverkusen shows a strong offense at home with an average of 2.06 goals per game and concedes 1.06 goals
The grass surface of the stadium offers normal playing conditions