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Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg - FC Bayern München

05/09/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
VfL Wolfsburg
1.3
Total xG
3.2
FC Bayern München
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

2:1

6%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
VWFBM

VfL Wolfsburg

Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 1, 15 places gap)
-0.23
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Mohamed Amoura not in squad (8 goals, 3 assists)
Aaron Zehnter on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

FC Bayern München

Attack strength (1.41x league average)
+0.39
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.25
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 16, 15 places gap)
+0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Luis Díaz on the bench (15 goals, 13 assists)
Konrad Laimer on the bench (3 goals, 8 assists)
Aleksandar Pavlovic on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Jonathan Tah on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Alphonso Davies not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (2.3 vs 3.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Bayern München: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    VfL Wolfsburg: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    VfL Wolfsburg: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    FC Bayern München: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (7 points rescued)

  • 5
    VfL Wolfsburg: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

24%

Draw

25%

Away Win

52%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

48%

Away or Draw

76%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Offensive strength versus defensive weakness: Bayern scores 3.63 goals/game, Wolfsburg concedes 2.09 goals/game
  • Historical dominance: Bayern won all 5 direct duels with a goal difference of 18:6
  • Table position and form: Bayern are league leaders, Wolfsburg is in relegation battle and in poor form (pipelinePrediction: 52% away win)
Risk Factors
  • Short rest period for FC Bayern München with only 3 days since their last match
  • FC Bayern München's increased defensive vulnerability, conceding an average of 2.8 goals in recent matches
  • VfL Wolfsburg recently showed some resilience with two consecutive draws
Overview

VfL Wolfsburg (16th place, 26 points) host FC Bayern München (1st place, 83 points) at the Volkswagen Arena

Bundesliga match on May 9, 2026, 6:30 PM

Bayern are clear league leaders, while Wolfsburg are fighting against relegation

Form

VfL Wolfsburg's form across all competitions is: LLWDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This reflects 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Their last two matches ended in draws

FC Bayern München's form is: WWLDD

This indicates 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Bayern also drew their last two games

Statistics

VfL Wolfsburg averages 1.31 goals scored and 2.09 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they score an average of 1.31 goals and concede 1.94 goals per home game

Wolfsburg kept 2 clean sheets

FC Bayern München boasts an average of 3.63 goals scored and only 1.09 goals conceded per match

Away from home, they score an average of 3.53 goals and concede 1.13 goals

The team recorded 11 clean sheets

The Volkswagen Arena has historically seen an average of 2.4 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of matches

VfL Wolfsburg is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.4), with a positive form trend

FC Bayern München consistently scores (~3.3 goals per game), with stable form

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, VfL Wolfsburg secured 0 wins and FC Bayern München achieved 5 wins

There were no draws

The goal difference stands at 6:18 in favor of Bayern

The last encounter on January 11, 2026, resulted in an 8-1 victory for FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München has been dominant in recent meetings

Key Players

For VfL Wolfsburg, key players include Christian Eriksen (3 goals, 8 assists, avg rating 7.01), Dzenan Pejcinovic (7 goals, avg rating 6.76), and Patrick Wimmer (4 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 6.77)

Wimmer showed a rising form with 1 goal in 365 minutes and a rating of 7.19

For FC Bayern München, Harry Kane (33 goals, 5 assists, avg rating 7.85), Michael Olise (13 goals, 19 assists, avg rating 7.8), and Joshua Kimmich (2 goals, 6 assists, avg rating 7.65) are notable

Kane scored 4 goals and 1 assist in 331 minutes, Olise 2 goals and 1 assist in 331 minutes

Kimmich provided 1 assist in 331 minutes

Goalkeepers

Kamil Grabara is the goalkeeper for VfL Wolfsburg with 32 season appearances

The team recorded 2 clean sheets this season

Jonas Urbig starts for FC Bayern München with 12 season appearances

FC Bayern München achieved 11 clean sheets this season

Influences

VfL Wolfsburg's home advantage is reflected in an average of 1.31 home goals scored against 1.94 goals conceded

The Volkswagen Arena shows an average of 2.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of matches at this stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%

The match will be played on grass

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