Match report →
Arsenal – Atlético de Madrid1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Arsenal
2.22
Total xG
3.15
Atlético de Madrid
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Arsenal | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −1.15 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.70 | +0.70 |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1.5 vs 2.2 season average) | −0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| Noni Madueke on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Martín Zubimendi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline's Forecast: The mathematical analysis indicates a 66% probability of a home win for Arsenal
- Table Position: Arsenal leads the Champions League table with 24 points, while Atlético Madrid is in 14th place
- Home Strength: Arsenal scores an average of 1.90 goals per home game and concedes only 0.52 goals
Risks
- Limited data availability for similar weather conditions
- Arsenal had only 3 days rest since their last match
- Atlético Madrid had only 3 days rest since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Arsenal66%
Draw21%
Atlético de Madrid13%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Double chance
Arsenal or draw87%
Atlético de Madrid or draw34%
No draw79%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
2:0
11%
1:1
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: 90% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)
- Atlético Madrid: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Atlético Madrid: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Atlético Madrid with Nico González: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Arsenal with Max Dowman: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
Lineups
Arsenal 4-2-3-1 · Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 4 B. White
- 2 W. Saliba
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 41 D. Rice
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 7 B. Saka
- 10 E. Eze
- 19 L. Trossard
- 14 V. Gyökeres
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 17 D. Hancko
- 3 M. Ruggeri
- 20 G. Simeone
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 22 A. Lookman
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 19 J. Álvarez
Substitutes
- 9 G. de Jesus
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 56 M. Dowman
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 16 C. Nørgaard
- 20 C. Madueke
- 3 C. Mosquera
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 11 G. Martinelli Silva
- 29 K. Havertz
- 35 T. Hogan Setford
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 9 A. Sørloth
- 15 C. Lenglet
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 1 J. Musso
- 2 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 11 T. Almada
- 16 N. Molina Lucero
- 32 J. Franco
- 34 J. Del Romo
- 21 O. Vaargas
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