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Champions League

Arsenal - Atlético Madrid

05/05/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Arsenal
2.2
Total xG
3.1
Atlético Madrid
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
ARSAM

Arsenal

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-1.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.29
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.23
Declining form (1.5 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap)
+0.14
Noni Madueke on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Martín Zubimendi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Atlético Madrid

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.41
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap)
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Arsenal: 90% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Atlético Madrid: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Atlético Madrid: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 4
    Atlético Madrid with Nico González: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Arsenal with Max Dowman: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

21%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

34%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline's Forecast: The mathematical analysis indicates a 66% probability of a home win for Arsenal
  • Table Position: Arsenal leads the Champions League table with 24 points, while Atlético Madrid is in 14th place
  • Home Strength: Arsenal scores an average of 1.90 goals per home game and concedes only 0.52 goals
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for similar weather conditions
  • Arsenal had only 3 days rest since their last match
  • Atlético Madrid had only 3 days rest since their last match
Overview

Arsenal (1st place, 24 points) hosts Atlético Madrid (14th place, 13 points) at the Emirates Stadium for a Champions League match on May 5, 2026, 8:00 PM

Arsenal leads the table with an impressive record

The mathematical analysis considers Arsenal the clear favorite with a 66% probability of a home win

Form

Arsenal's form in their last five matches is DLWDW

This translates to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last result was a 3-0 victory against Fulham

Atlético Madrid also shows a form of DLWDW

This means 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games

Their last match ended in a 2-0 victory against Valencia

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Arsenal has scored an average of 1.91 goals and conceded 0.74 goals per game this season

At home, Arsenal averages 1.90 goals scored and 0.52 goals conceded

The team recorded 17 clean sheets

Atlético Madrid averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded per game

Away, their average is 1.67 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded per game

Atlético Madrid kept 13 clean sheets this season

The Emirates Stadium sees an average of 1.8 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 20% of matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 40% of matches

Head-to-Head

In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, Arsenal secured 1 win and there was 1 draw

Atlético Madrid has not yet won a match against Arsenal

Arsenal scored 5 goals, while Atlético Madrid scored 1 goal

The last encounter on April 29, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Arsenal has shown to be the more dominant team in recent direct matchups

Key Players

For Arsenal, Viktor Gyökeres is a key offensive player with 5 goals and 2 assists, holding an average rating of 6.93

He scored 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.11, showing a stable form trend

Bukayo Saka contributes 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.18, and his form is rising

Leandro Trossard provided 1 goal and 4 assists with an average rating of 7.03 and stable form

For Atlético Madrid, Julián Alvarez is the top scorer with 10 goals and 4 assists (average rating 7.69)

He scored 2 goals in his last 3 games with a rating of 7.68, and his form trend is stable

Antoine Griezmann has 2 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 6.98 and stable form

Ademola Lookman contributed 2 goals and 2 assists with an average rating of 7.03 and a stable form trend

Goalkeepers

Arsenal's goalkeeper, David Raya, has a season average rating of 7.16

Arsenal has achieved 17 clean sheets this season

For Atlético Madrid, goalkeeper Jan Oblak has a season average rating of 6.70

Atlético Madrid recorded 13 clean sheets this season

Influences

Arsenal's home strength is evident with an average of 1.90 goals scored and only 0.52 goals conceded at home

The Emirates Stadium averages 1.8 goals per game

Both teams score in 20% of matches and over 2.5 goals occur in 40% of matches at this venue

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