🇪🇺

Champions League

Paris Saint Germain - FC Bayern München

04/28/2026, 07:00 PM

5 : 4
Expected Goals
Paris Saint Germain
1.6
Total xG
3.2
FC Bayern München
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
PSGFBM

Paris Saint Germain

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.87
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap)
-0.16
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.15
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Full strength squad available

FC Bayern München

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Attack strength (1.49x league average)
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap)
+0.07
Nicolas Jackson on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Konrad Laimer on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (2.2 vs 3.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Bayern München: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 3
    FC Bayern München: 7 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 4
    Paris Saint Germain: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 5
    Paris Saint Germain: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

26%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • FC Bayern München's offensive power: FC Bayern München is clearly more offensively potent this season with an average of 3.65 goals per game compared to Paris Saint Germain (2.27 goals)
  • Current top form of both teams: Both teams have won their last five matches, indicating a high level of performance
  • Historical Bayern dominance: In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, FC Bayern München won both encounters, which speaks for the visitors
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery time for FC Bayern München: The visitors had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
  • Potentially high-scoring match: Mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of both teams scoring (65%) and over 2.5 goals (61%)
Overview

Paris Saint Germain (11th place, 14 points) hosts FC Bayern München (2nd place, 21 points) at the Parc des Princes

Champions League match on April 28, 2026, 9:00 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts a close match with a 37% home win probability and a 36% away win probability

The model expects 1.59 goals for PSG and 1.57 goals for Bayern

Form

Paris Saint Germain shows excellent form in the last 5 games: WWWWW

This corresponds to 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses

FC Bayern München also displays flawless form: WWWWW

This corresponds to 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses

Both teams won their last 5 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Paris Saint Germain averages 2.27 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded per season

FC Bayern München is offensively stronger with an average of 3.65 goals per game but concedes 1.03 goals

The Parc des Princes sees an average of 3.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of matches at the Parc des Princes, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals

PSG is strong at home with 2.24 goals scored and only 0.59 goals conceded per home game

Bayern is also very offensively strong away with 3.53 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded per away game

Head-to-Head

In 2 head-to-head matches, FC Bayern München dominated with 2 wins and 0 losses

Bayern scored 3 goals, while Paris Saint Germain scored 1 goal

The last encounter on November 4, 2025, ended with a 2-1 away win for FC Bayern München

The historical record favors the visitors

Key Players

For Paris Saint Germain, key players are in top form

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has 8 season goals and 5 assists with a season average rating of 7.65

Ousmane Dembélé has recently been strong with 4 goals and 1 assist in 4 of 5 games with rising form

Achraf Hakimi contributed significantly to the offense with 7 assists and has a seasonal average rating of 7.36

On the FC Bayern München side, Harry Kane is an important attacker with 12 season goals and 4 goals in the last 4 games

Michael Olise has 4 season goals and 6 assists, with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Jamal Musiala is an offensive playmaker with 2 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games with rising form

Goalkeepers

Paris Saint Germain's goalkeeper Matvey Safonov has a seasonal average rating of 7.08 and maintained a rating of 6.67 in his last 5 appearances

FC Bayern München's goalkeeper Manuel Neuer has a seasonal average rating of 6.97 and achieved a rating of 7.02 in his last 3 appearances

Paris Saint Germain recorded 16 clean sheets this season, Bayern 11 clean sheets

Influences

The Parc des Princes is considered a high-scoring venue with an average of 3.8 goals per game

Paris Saint Germain performs very strongly at home with 2.24 goals scored and 0.59 goals conceded per game

FC Bayern München is also an offensive powerhouse away with 3.53 goals and 1.13 goals conceded per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.