🇩🇪

Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund - Eintracht Frankfurt

05/08/2026, 06:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Borussia Dortmund
2.2
Total xG
3.2
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

3:1

7%

3:0

7%
What influences the xG?
BDEF

Borussia Dortmund

Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+0.54
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.50
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (1.4 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.20
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap)
+0.06
Ramy Bensebaini not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Daniel Svensson on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Eintracht Frankfurt

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Jonathan Burkardt on the bench (10 goals, 1 assists)
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Hugo Larsson on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Oscar Højlund on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Eintracht Frankfurt with Ansgar Knauff: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Eintracht Frankfurt: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Borussia Dortmund: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Eintracht Frankfurt: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Borussia Dortmund with Ramy Bensebaini: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

22%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

37%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 63% for Borussia Dortmund
  • Borussia Dortmund shows strong home performance with an average of 2.06 goals scored and only 0.78 goals conceded per home game
  • Eintracht Frankfurt is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.06 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Borussia Dortmund's average shots on target in their last 5 games is only 2.6
  • Both teams' goal production shows a negative trend according to advanced statistics
  • Eintracht Frankfurt averaged 5.6 shots on target in their last 5 games and could pose an offensive threat
Overview

Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 67 points) host Eintracht Frankfurt (8th place, 43 points) at Signal Iduna Park. The Bundesliga match takes place on May 8, 2026, 8:30 PM. BVB aims to solidify their Champions League position, while Frankfurt battles for a European qualification spot

Form

Borussia Dortmund's form in their last five league matches is WLLWL (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Most recently, BVB lost 0-1 away against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Eintracht Frankfurt shows a form of DWLDL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses) in their last five games. In their last match, Eintracht lost 1-2 at home against Hamburger SV

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Borussia Dortmund averages 2.03 goals scored per game and concedes 1.0 goals. At home, they average 2.06 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded. Eintracht Frankfurt averages 1.78 goals scored per game and concedes 1.88 goals. Away from home, Frankfurt concedes an average of 2.06 goals per game. At Signal Iduna Park, an average of 3.4 goals are scored per game. Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and 3 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals. Borussia Dortmund's goal production has slowed with 1.4 goals recently compared to their season average of 2.1 goals. Eintracht Frankfurt's goal production has also slowed with 1.4 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.8 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia Dortmund secured 2 wins, Eintracht Frankfurt 1 win, and there were 2 draws. Borussia Dortmund scored 9 goals and conceded 7. The last encounter on January 9, 2026, ended in a 3-3 draw. Borussia Dortmund has been dominant in recent home encounters

Key Players

For Borussia Dortmund, Serhou Guirassy is a key player with 15 season goals and 2 assists, as is Julian Ryerson with 14 season assists. Julian Brandt contributes 7 goals and 4 assists. For Eintracht Frankfurt, Can Uzun stands out with 7 goals and 6 assists. Farès Chaïbi is an important playmaker with 9 assists, while Arnaud Kalimuendo contributed 6 season goals and scored 2 goals in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Borussia Dortmund's goalkeeper Gregor Kobel recorded 14 clean sheets this season. Michael Zetterer, Eintracht Frankfurt's goalkeeper, registered 7 clean sheets. At home, Dortmund achieved 9 clean sheets, while Frankfurt managed 1 away clean sheet

Influences

Borussia Dortmund holds a noticeable home advantage, averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded in home matches. At Signal Iduna Park, an average of 3.4 goals are scored per game. In 40% of matches, both teams scored, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.