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Champions League

FC Bayern München - Paris Saint Germain

05/06/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
FC Bayern München
2.0
Total xG
3.5
Paris Saint Germain
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

10%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FBMPSG

FC Bayern München

Attack strength (1.59x league average)
-0.18
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap)
+0.08
Nicolas Jackson on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)

Paris Saint Germain

Attack strength (1.46x league average)
+0.63
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.26
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.25
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (3.2 vs 2.5 season average)
+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap)
-0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Achraf Hakimi not in squad (1 goals, 8 assists)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Bayern München: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Paris Saint Germain: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 4
    Paris Saint Germain: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Paris Saint Germain with Senny Mayulu: 11.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

24%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

69%

No

31%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 46% for Bayern
  • The model expects many goals with an average of 1.95 for Bayern and 1.54 for Paris, with a 69% probability for both teams to score
  • Both teams are possession-dominant and offensively strong, with an average of 7.6 shots on target for Bayern and 6.8 for Paris in their last 5 games
Overview

FC Bayern München host Paris Saint Germain at the Allianz Arena

Champions League match on May 6, 2026, 8:00 PM

Bayern are in 2nd place in the league table with 21 points, Paris in 11th place with 14 points

Both teams are fighting for progress in this high-profile competition

Form

FC Bayern München's form in their last 5 games is WWWLD

This accounts for 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Their last match ended in a draw

Paris Saint Germain shows a perfect form of WWWWW in their last 5 games

This includes 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses

The explanation of form codes is: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Bayern München score an average of 3.63 goals per game and concede 1.09 goals per game this season

At home, Bayern are offensively strong with an average of 3.71 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded per game

Paris Saint Germain score an average of 2.26 goals and concede 0.87 goals per game

Away from home, Paris's goal average is 2.31 goals scored and 1.15 goals conceded per game

An average of 5.6 goals are scored per game at the Allianz Arena

Both teams scored in 80% of the games, and 100% of matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, FC Bayern München led the record with 2 wins

Paris Saint Germain won 1 match, and there were no draws

The goal difference is 7:6 in favor of Bayern

The last encounter on April 28, 2026, ended with a 5-4 victory for Paris Saint Germain

Key Players

For FC Bayern München, Harry Kane (13 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 7.93), Michael Olise (5 goals, 6 assists, avg rating 7.78), and Luis Díaz (7 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 7.51) are key players

Michael Olise shows a declining form trend, while Harry Kane and Luis Díaz also have a declining form trend

For Paris Saint Germain, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (10 goals, 5 assists, avg rating 7.70), Ousmane Dembélé (6 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 7.22), and Désiré Doué (5 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 7.59) are crucial

Ousmane Dembélé has a rising form trend with 6 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Not selected for Bayern: Nicolas Jackson (3G/3A)

Not selected for Paris: Achraf Hakimi (1G/8A)

Goalkeepers

Manuel Neuer, goalkeeper for FC Bayern München, had an average rating of 6.82 in 10 season appearances

Bayern recorded a total of 11 clean sheets

Matvey Safonov, goalkeeper for Paris Saint Germain, achieved an average rating of 6.98 in 9 season appearances

Paris kept 16 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Allianz Arena favors high-scoring games with an average of 5.6 goals per match

In 80% of FC Bayern's home games, both teams scored, and 100% ended with over 2.5 goals

FC Bayern München shows a strong offense at home with an average of 3.71 goals per game

Their home defense concedes an average of 1.06 goals per game

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