Match report →
Atlético de Madrid – Arsenal1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlético de Madrid
1.39
Total xG
3.00
Arsenal
1.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético de Madrid | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.70 | +0.70 |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.58 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.41 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 2.2 season average) | −0.35 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| Robin Le Normand on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Kai Havertz not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Eberechi Eze on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis gives Arsenal a higher win probability of 41%
- Dominant league position: Arsenal leads the table with 24 points, while Atlético Madrid is in 14th place with 13 points
- Arsenal's defensive strength: Arsenal has conceded an average of only 0.76 goals per game this season, compared to Atlético Madrid's 1.12
Risks
- Atlético Madrid's recent goal production is 1.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 2.0
- Arsenal averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Arsenal's recent goal production is 1.0 goals per game, compared to their season average of 2.2
All probabilities
Result
Atlético de Madrid32%
Draw27%
Arsenal41%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Double chance
Atlético de Madrid or draw59%
Arsenal or draw68%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético Madrid: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Atlético Madrid with Nico González: 4.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Arsenal with Noni Madueke: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 3 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Arsenal: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Atlético Madrid: 43% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 14)
Lineups
Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2 · Arsenal 4-3-3
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 D. Hancko
- 3 M. Ruggeri
- 20 G. Simeone
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 22 A. Lookman
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 19 J. Álvarez
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 4 B. White
- 2 W. Saliba
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 41 D. Rice
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 20 C. Madueke
- 14 V. Gyökeres
- 11 G. Martinelli Silva
Substitutes
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 9 A. Sørloth
- 15 C. Lenglet
- 1 J. Musso
- 11 T. Almada
- 16 N. Molina Lucero
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 32 J. Franco
- 34 J. Del Romo
- 31 S. Esquivel Gámez
- 21 O. Vaargas
- 9 G. de Jesus
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 56 M. Dowman
- 16 C. Nørgaard
- 3 C. Mosquera
- 10 E. Eze
- 19 L. Trossard
- 7 B. Saka
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 35 T. Hogan Setford
- 89 M. Salmon
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