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Champions League

Atlético Madrid - Arsenal

04/29/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlético Madrid
1.4
Total xG
3.0
Arsenal
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
AMARS

Atlético Madrid

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap)
-0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.07
Robin Le Normand on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Arsenal

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.58
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.41
Declining form (1 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.35
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap)
+0.10
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.02
Kai Havertz not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Eberechi Eze on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético Madrid: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlético Madrid with Nico González: 4.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Arsenal with Noni Madueke: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 3 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Arsenal: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Atlético Madrid: 43% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 14)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

27%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis gives Arsenal a higher win probability of 41%
  • Dominant league position: Arsenal leads the table with 24 points, while Atlético Madrid is in 14th place with 13 points
  • Arsenal's defensive strength: Arsenal has conceded an average of only 0.76 goals per game this season, compared to Atlético Madrid's 1.12
Risk Factors
  • Atlético Madrid's recent goal production is 1.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 2.0
  • Arsenal averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Arsenal's recent goal production is 1.0 goals per game, compared to their season average of 2.2
Overview

Atlético Madrid (14th place, 13 points) host Arsenal (1st place, 24 points) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Champions League match on April 29, 2026, 9:00 PM

Arsenal enters this duel as the clear league leader

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The home team Atlético Madrid shows a form of LLDLW

In their last 5 games, they recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

The last result was a win

Arsenal comes into this match with the form WLDLW

They have achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

The last result was a win

Statistics

Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.70 goals per game and concedes 1.12 goals per game this season

Arsenal is offensively stronger with an average of 1.88 goals and defensively more solid with 0.76 goals conceded per game

Atlético Madrid kept 12 clean sheets, Arsenal kept 16 clean sheets

At the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, an average of 2.8 goals are scored per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.73 goals at home and concedes 0.73 goals

Arsenal scores an average of 1.93 goals away and concedes 1.07 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between the two teams

Arsenal won 1 game, Atlético Madrid 0 games, and there were 0 draws

The goal difference is 0:4 in favor of Arsenal

The last encounter on October 21, 2025, ended with a 4:0 victory for Arsenal

Key Players

For Atlético Madrid, the key players are:

Julián Alvarez (Attacker): 9 season goals, 4 assists, Avg. 7.69 rating

Marcos Llorente (Defender): 4 season goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.03 rating

Antoine Griezmann (Attacker): 2 season goals, 3 assists, Avg. 7.01 rating

For Arsenal, the key players are:

Gabriel Martinelli (Attacker): 6 season goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.24 rating

Declan Rice (Midfielder): 1 season goal, 2 assists, Avg. 7.34 rating

Noni Madueke (Attacker): 3 season goals, 0 assists, Avg. 7.36 rating

Goalkeepers

Atlético Madrid's goalkeeper Jan Oblak has an average season rating of 6.74 and 12 clean sheets

Arsenal's goalkeeper David Raya has an average season rating of 7.16 and 16 clean sheets

Influences

The Riyadh Air Metropolitano is a stadium where an average of 2.8 goals are scored per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

Atlético Madrid is strong at home with an average of 1.73 goals scored and 0.73 goals conceded per game

Arsenal shows a solid away performance with an average of 1.93 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded per game

The playing surface is grass

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