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Europa League

Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa

04/30/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Nottingham Forest
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Aston Villa
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
NFAV

Nottingham Forest

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.27
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.27
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.15
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Aston Villa

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.23
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.06
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.01
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Aston Villa: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Aston Villa: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 3
    Aston Villa with Leon Bailey: 10.4 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Nottingham Forest: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 5
    Nottingham Forest with Morato: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

31%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Nottingham Forest can only field 44% of their seasonal goal production
  • Aston Villa can only field 51% of their seasonal goal production
  • Nottingham Forest is unbeaten in their last 5 matches (DDWWW), with the pipeline predicting a 36% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Aston Villa historically dominated with 3 wins in 5 head-to-head matches
  • Nottingham Forest is currently scoring more frequently (2.4) than their recent xG value (1.13) suggests
Overview

Nottingham Forest (13th place, 14 points) host Aston Villa (2nd place, 21 points) at The City Ground

Europa League match on April 30, 2026, 8:00 PM

Aston Villa are contending for the top of the table, while Nottingham Forest are looking to climb

Form

Nottingham Forest show strong form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches (DDWWW)

Aston Villa recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games (WDWWL)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Nottingham Forest average 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game

At home, they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded

Aston Villa average 1.38 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded

Away from home, they score 1.43 goals and concede 1.71 goals

At The City Ground, an average of 1.8 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches so far, Nottingham Forest secured 1 win, Aston Villa 3 wins, and there was 1 draw

The goal difference is 7:11 in favor of Aston Villa

The last encounter on April 12, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

For Nottingham Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White is a key player with 5 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, as is Igor Jesus with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 matches

Neco Williams, a defender, contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

For Aston Villa, Ollie Watkins stands out with 5 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Morgan Rogers recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances, while John McGinn provided 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Nottingham Forest goalkeeper Stefan Ortega has not scored in 5 season appearances

Aston Villa goalkeeper Emiliano MartĂ­nez has also not scored in 8 season appearances

Nottingham Forest have achieved a total of 9 clean sheets this season, and Aston Villa also 9 clean sheets

Influences

An average of 1.8 goals per game are scored at The City Ground

In 2 of 5 matches, both teams scored, and only in 1 of 5 matches were there more than 2.5 goals

Nottingham Forest average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded at home

Aston Villa average 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded away from home

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