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Europa League

Sporting Braga - SC Freiburg

04/30/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Sporting Braga
1.5
Total xG
2.5
SC Freiburg
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SBSF

Sporting Braga

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.57
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.06
Fran Navarro on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Leonardo Lelo on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

SC Freiburg

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.56
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.36
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.05
Christian Günter on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    SC Freiburg: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    SC Freiburg with Yuito Suzuki: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    SC Freiburg: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 5
    SC Freiburg: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

29%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Braga's Home Strength: Braga averages 1.94 goals scored at home and concedes only 0.94 goals
  • Mathematical Prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 47% probability
  • Freiburg's Offense: Freiburg averaged 4.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Braga's 3.0
Risk Factors
  • Away Defensive Weakness: SC Freiburg concedes an average of 2.91 goals per away game
  • Injuries: Sporting Braga has six players sidelined, including L. Barišić (Groin Injury) and S. Niakate (Achilles tendon rupture)
Overview

Sporting Braga (6th place, 17 points) host SC Freiburg (7th place, 17 points) at the Estádio Municipal de Braga. This Europa League match takes place on April 30, 2026, 9:00 PM. Both teams are level on points in the Europa League standings, indicating a balanced encounter.

Form

Sporting Braga's form in the last five games is WWDWL

This translates to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Their last game resulted in a loss

SC Freiburg's form in the last five games is WWWWL

This indicates 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss

Freiburg also recorded a loss in their last match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sporting Braga scores an average of 1.90 goals per game and concedes 1.00 goals

At home, Braga averages 1.94 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded

The team has recorded 12 clean sheets this season

Both teams scored in 16 matches, and 21 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

SC Freiburg scores an average of 1.42 goals per game and concedes 1.68 goals

Away from home, Freiburg averages 1.45 goals scored and 2.91 goals conceded

The team has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Both teams scored in 18 matches, and 20 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

The Estádio Municipal de Braga has seen an average of 2.8 total goals in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 60% of games at this stadium, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There are no previous head-to-head meetings between Sporting Braga and SC Freiburg available in the dataset

Key Players

For Sporting Braga, key players are Ricardo Horta (4 goals, 4 assists, Avg. 7.09 Rating), Rodrigo Zalazar (6 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.14 Rating), and Pau Víctor (4 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.93 Rating)

Ricardo Horta scored 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a 'stable' form trend

Rodrigo Zalazar scored 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a 'stable' form trend

Pau Víctor scored 3 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games with a 'stable' form trend

For SC Freiburg, significant players include Vincenzo Grifo (4 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 7.11 Rating), Yuito Suzuki (4 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.25 Rating), and Matthias Ginter (2 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.17 Rating)

Vincenzo Grifo scored 1 goal and 3 assists in the last 5 games with a 'stable' form trend

Yuito Suzuki scored 2 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games with a 'declining' form trend

Matthias Ginter scored 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a 'stable' form trend

Goalkeepers

Sporting Braga's goalkeeper, Lukas Hornicek, played 17 times with an average rating of 6.84

The team achieved 12 clean sheets this season

SC Freiburg's goalkeeper, Noah Atubolu, played 12 times with an average rating of 6.87

The team achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Sporting Braga shows strong home performance, averaging 1.94 goals scored and only 0.94 goals conceded per home game

SC Freiburg has a weaker defense away from home, conceding an average of 2.91 goals per away game

The Estádio Municipal de Braga has recorded an average of 2.8 total goals per match in the last 5 games

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