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Europa League

Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest

05/07/2026, 07:00 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Aston Villa
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Nottingham Forest
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
AVNF

Aston Villa

Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
Attack strength (1.24x league average)
+0.04
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.02
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Nottingham Forest

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.39
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.39
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.15
Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.12
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.12
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.03
Morgan Gibbs-White on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Aston Villa with Tammy Abraham: 9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Nottingham Forest: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 3
    Aston Villa: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Nottingham Forest with Elliot Anderson: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

28%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Critical weakening of home offense: Aston Villa has only 50% of the goal production from non-injured key players available
  • Nottingham Forest's impressive form: The visitors have achieved five consecutive wins
  • Prediction: Aston Villa (46% win), draw/away win combined 55% – closer than expected
Risk Factors
  • Nottingham Forest: Morgan Gibbs-White (3G/3A) is missing, reducing assists by 31%
  • Short recovery time for Nottingham Forest: The team had only 3 days of rest since their last match
Overview

Aston Villa (2nd place, 21 points) host Nottingham Forest (13th place, 14 points) at Villa Park on May 7, 2026, 8:00 PM for the Europa League

Aston Villa aims for top spot, Nottingham Forest for promotion

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Aston Villa's form: WWLLL, recently 3 losses

Nottingham Forest: WWWWW, 5 consecutive wins

Aston Villa is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than season average (1.6)

Nottingham Forest is currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than season average (1.5)

Statistics

Aston Villa home: Avg. 1.4 goals scored, Avg. 1.0 goals conceded

Nottingham Forest away: Avg. 1.24 goals scored, Avg. 1.19 goals conceded

At Villa Park: Avg. 3.6 goals/game, 40% both teams score, 60% over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches: Aston Villa 2 wins, Nottingham Forest 2 wins, 1 draw

Goal difference: Aston Villa 7, Nottingham Forest 6

Last encounter (2026-04-30): 1-0 for Nottingham Forest

Key Players

Aston Villa: Ollie Watkins (3G/1A in last 5, rising), John McGinn (0G/2A in last 5, rising), Emiliano BuendĂ­a (2G/0A in last 5, stable)

Nottingham Forest: Igor Jesus (3G/1A in last 5, stable), Chris Wood (2G/0A in last 5, stable), Elliot Anderson (1G/0A in last 5, stable)

Goalkeepers

Emiliano MartĂ­nez (Aston Villa): 9 clean sheets this season

Stefan Ortega (Nottingham Forest): 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

Match at Villa Park on grass pitch

Home advantage Aston Villa: Avg. 1.4 goals scored, Avg. 1.0 goals conceded

Venue Stats: Avg. 3.6 goals/game, 40% BTTS, 60% Over 2.5

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