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Europa League

SC Freiburg - Sporting Braga

05/07/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
SC Freiburg
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Sporting Braga
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SFSB

SC Freiburg

Attack strength (1.36x league average)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.06
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.02
Yuito Suzuki not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Christian Günter on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

Sporting Braga

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average)
-0.17
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
Ricardo Horta on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
Leonardo Lelo on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    SC Freiburg with Yuito Suzuki: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    SC Freiburg: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    SC Freiburg: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Sporting Braga with Vítor Carvalho: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

29%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: SC Freiburg is slightly favored with a 42% win probability and predicted 1.46 goals compared to Sporting Braga's 1.15 goals
  • Head-to-Head: Sporting Braga recently won the only head-to-head encounter 2-1 away
  • Form Trend: According to Advanced Stats, both teams show a negative form trend regarding goal production
Risk Factors
  • Sporting Braga's average shots on target in the last 5 games is 3.4
  • SC Freiburg's goal production is stagnant (currently 1.4 goals compared to the season average of 1.6 goals)
  • Sporting Braga's goal production is stagnant (currently 1.4 goals compared to the season average of 2.0 goals)
Overview

SC Freiburg host Sporting Braga at Europa-Park Stadion for a Europa League match on May 7, 2026, 9:00 PM

Both teams are level on points in the standings: Sporting Braga are in 6th place with 17 points, SC Freiburg are in 7th place, also with 17 points

The mathematical analysis sees SC Freiburg as slight favorites with a 42% probability of winning

Form

SC Freiburg's current form across all competitions is WWLLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

SC Freiburg recently drew 1-1 against VfL Wolfsburg

Before that, they suffered a 1-2 loss against Sporting Braga and a clear 0-4 loss against Borussia Dortmund

Sporting Braga's form across all competitions is DWLWD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Sporting Braga recently drew 1-1 against Estoril

Previously, they won 2-1 against SC Freiburg and lost 1-2 against Santa Clara

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

SC Freiburg scored an average of 1.41 goals per game this season and conceded 1.66 goals

In home games, Freiburg scored 1.38 goals per game and conceded 1.0 goals

Sporting Braga is stronger offensively with an average of 1.88 goals per game and a better defense with 1.0 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Braga scored 1.87 goals per game and conceded 1.07 goals

At Europa-Park Stadion, an average of 3.8 goals were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between the two teams so far

This single encounter took place on April 30, 2026, with Sporting Braga winning 2-1 away

Sporting Braga is the recently dominant team in head-to-head matches

Key Players

For SC Freiburg, Vincenzo Grifo, Matthias Ginter, and Igor Matanovic are key players

Vincenzo Grifo has scored 5 goals and provided 3 assists this season, with an average rating of 7.11

Matthias Ginter contributed 2 goals and 2 assists, his average rating is 7.12

Igor Matanovic has 3 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 6.94

For Sporting Braga, Rodrigo Zalazar, Pau Víctor, and Mario Dorgeles stand out

Rodrigo Zalazar scored 6 goals and 2 assists, with an average rating of 7.06

Pau Víctor has 4 goals and 1 assist this season, his rating is 6.94

Mario Dorgeles was involved in 2 goals and 1 assist and has a rating of 6.84

Goalkeepers

SC Freiburg's goalkeeper, Noah Atubolu, has achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Lukas Hornicek of Sporting Braga has kept 12 clean sheets this season

Influences

The home advantage at Europa-Park Stadion is shown by the history of 3.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the matches

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