đŸ‡ȘđŸ‡ș

Europa Conference League

Rayo Vallecano - Strasbourg

04/30/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Rayo Vallecano
1.7
Total xG
3.0
Strasbourg
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RVSTR

Rayo Vallecano

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.40
Attack strength (1.23x league average)
+0.12
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Álvaro García not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists)
Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Strasbourg

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.10
Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.01
Sebastian Nanasi on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Guela Doué not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Strasbourg with Lucas HĂžgsberg: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Rayo Vallecano with Óscar Valentín: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 6.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Rayo Vallecano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Rayo Vallecano: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 6 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

27%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 46% win probability for Rayo Vallecano
  • Strasbourg shows a positive form trend, currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average (1.9)
  • Rayo Vallecano scores consistently at home (averaging 1.6 goals per game) and aims for group victory
Risk Factors
  • Rayo Vallecano has only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Limited data available for head-to-head matches
  • At Estadio de Vallecas, both teams did not score in 80% of the last 5 matches
Overview

Rayo Vallecano (5th place, 13 points) host Strasbourg (1st place, 16 points) at Estadio de Vallecas in the Europa Conference League on April 30, 2026, 9:00 PM

Strasbourg leads the table, while Rayo Vallecano is in a qualifying spot

Both teams are fighting for progression in the knockout phase

Form

Rayo Vallecano's form in the last five games (all competitions) is WLLWD

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Rayo Vallecano last drew 3-3 against Real Sociedad

Strasbourg's form in the last five games (all competitions) is DWWLW

This corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Strasbourg last won 4-0 against FSV Mainz 05

Statistics

Rayo Vallecano scores an average of 1.00 goals per game and concedes 1.24 goals per game this season

At home, Rayo Vallecano scores an average of 1.00 goals and concedes 0.67 goals

Strasbourg scores an average of 1.63 goals per game and concedes 1.30 goals per game this season

Away from home, Strasbourg scores an average of 1.67 goals and concedes 1.73 goals

Rayo Vallecano kept 10 clean sheets this season, Strasbourg 9 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 14 of Rayo Vallecano's games and 18 of Strasbourg's games

Rayo Vallecano had over 2.5 goals in 13 games, Strasbourg in 19 games

At Estadio de Vallecas, the last 5 matches averaged 2.4 total goals per game

In Rayo Vallecano's last 5 home games, both teams scored in 1 out of 5 matches

In Rayo Vallecano's last 5 home games, over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head matches between Rayo Vallecano and Strasbourg have been found in history

Key Players

For Rayo Vallecano, Isi PalazĂłn is an important attacker with 3 goals and 3 assists this season

Unai LĂłpez in midfield has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist

Forward Alexandre Zurawski scored 2 goals this season and netted 1 goal in his last 5 games

For Strasbourg, Julio Enciso in midfield is a key player with 3 goals and 4 assists

Attacker Martial Godo contributed 4 goals and 3 assists and shows a rising form trend

Emmanuel Emegha in attack scored 4 goals this season, including 2 in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Augusto Batalla of Rayo Vallecano recorded 7 clean sheets in home games

Mike Penders of Strasbourg achieved 2 clean sheets in away games

Influences

Estadio de Vallecas has seen an average of 2.4 total goals per game in the last 5 matches

Only in 20% of the last 5 games at Estadio de Vallecas did both teams score

In 40% of the last 5 games at Estadio de Vallecas, over 2.5 goals were scored

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.