Europa Conference League
Strasbourg - Rayo Vallecano
05/07/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.9
1.1
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
The Lab
- 1Strasbourg with Lucas HĂžgsberg: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 3Rayo Vallecano with Ăscar ValentĂn: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 6.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Rayo Vallecano: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 6 games with xG data)
- 5Strasbourg: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
26%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 52% for Strasbourg with expected 1.79 goals against Rayo Vallecano's 1.11 goals
- Strasbourg demonstrates a strong home defense with an average of 0.94 goals conceded per home game, combined with a positive goal trend (recently 2.0 goals per game compared to the season average of 1.8)
- Rayo Vallecano shows a clear away defensive vulnerability, conceding an average of 1.93 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Rayo Vallecano's current lineup has a reduced goal production of 74% of its usual strength
- Rayo Vallecano won the only recent direct encounter against Strasbourg with a 1-0 score
- Strasbourg suffered two losses in their last five matches
Overview
Strasbourg (1st place, 16 points) hosts Rayo Vallecano (5th place, 13 points) at the Stade de la Meinau
Europa Conference League match on May 7, 2026, 9:00 PM
Both teams are high in the table, indicating an important European clash
Form
Strasbourg's form in the last five matches is WWLWL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)
Their last match was a 0-1 away loss against Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano's form is LWDWW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
They enter this game with two consecutive wins, including a 1-0 victory over Strasbourg
Statistics
Strasbourg averages 1.61 goals scored per game and 1.32 goals conceded
At home, they are defensively solid with an average of 1.56 goals scored and only 0.94 goals conceded
Rayo Vallecano averages 1.03 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per game
Away from home, they have scored 1.00 goal and conceded 1.93 goals, indicating defensive weaknesses
The Stade de la Meinau sees an average of 3.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
There has only been one direct encounter between these two teams so far
On April 30, 2026, Rayo Vallecano won 1-0 away against Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano was dominant in this single head-to-head match
Key Players
For Strasbourg, Julio Enciso with 3 goals and 4 assists, and Martial Godo with 4 goals and 3 assists are key attacking players, both showing stable form
Abdoul Ouattara has scored 2 goals and is in rising form
Not nominated: Sebastian Nanasi (2 goals, 3 assists)
For Rayo Vallecano, Isi PalazĂłn with 3 goals and 4 assists is in rising form
Alexandre Zurawski has scored 3 goals and shows stable form
Jorge de Frutos contributed 2 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Strasbourg's goalkeeper Mike Penders has kept 9 clean sheets this season
Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper Augusto Batalla has managed 11 clean sheets
Influences
Strasbourg benefits from home advantage at Stade de la Meinau, where they average 1.56 goals scored and only 0.94 goals conceded
The venue averages 3.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in 60% of matches and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of matches