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Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart - Bayer 04 Leverkusen

05/09/2026, 01:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
VfB Stuttgart
1.8
Total xG
2.9
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
VSB0L

VfB Stuttgart

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.34
Bilal El Khannouss on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists)
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.27
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.27
Nathan Tella not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen with Ezequiel Fernández: 8.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    VfB Stuttgart with Josha Vagnoman: 8.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

26%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Advantage: The mathematical analysis predicts 1.77 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart compared to 1.13 for Leverkusen, with a home win probability of 51%
  • Stuttgart's Home Offense: VfB Stuttgart scores an average of 2.08 goals per game at home
  • Leverkusen's Form Trend: Bayer 04 Leverkusen shows very good form with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Leverkusen's Away Defensive Vulnerability: Bayer 04 Leverkusen concedes an average of 1.79 goals per away game
  • Stuttgart's Mixed Recent Form: VfB Stuttgart has achieved only one win across all competitions in their last five matches (1W, 2D, 2L)
Overview

VfB Stuttgart (5th place, 58 points) hosts Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4th place, 58 points) at the MHPArena

Bundesliga match on May 9, 2026, 3:30 PM

Both teams are level on points and are fighting for positions in the top third of the table

Form

VfB Stuttgart's recent form is LWLDD (1 Win, 2 Draws, 2 Losses) from their last 5 matches

In these games, Stuttgart scored 10 goals and conceded 10 goals

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's form is WWLWW (4 Wins, 0 Draws, 1 Loss) in their last 5 matches

Leverkusen scored 14 goals and conceded 7 goals in these encounters

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

VfB Stuttgart averages 2.06 goals scored per game and 1.44 goals conceded per game this season

At home, Stuttgart scores an average of 2.08 goals and concedes 1.15 goals per home game

They kept 11 clean sheets in total, 8 of which were at home

Bayer 04 Leverkusen averages 2.06 goals scored and 1.34 goals conceded per game this season

Away from home, Leverkusen scores an average of 2.07 goals and concedes 1.79 goals per away game

They recorded 8 clean sheets this season, with 2 of them away

The MHPArena has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and 2 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between these teams

VfB Stuttgart won 1 of these encounters and drew 2 times

Bayer 04 Leverkusen secured 2 victories

Stuttgart scored 11 goals in these matches, Leverkusen 10 goals

The last encounter on January 10, 2026, ended in a 1:4 victory for Stuttgart, with Leverkusen being the home team

Key Players

Deniz Undav is a key attacking player for Stuttgart with 18 goals and 6 assists this season and an average rating of 7.33, his form is declining

Chris Führich recorded 7 goals and 6 assists with an average rating of 7.11, his form is rising

Ermedin Demirovic contributed 11 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 7.05, his form is stable

Not nominated: Bilal El Khannouss (4 Goals/5 Assists)

Patrik Schick leads Leverkusen's attack with 16 goals and 3 assists this season and an average rating of 7.1, his form is rising

Alejandro Grimaldo is also in rising form with 8 goals and 8 assists and an average rating of 7.51

Aleix García showed rising form with 2 goals and 7 assists and an average rating of 7.41

Not nominated: Nathan Tella (1 Goal/4 Assists)

Goalkeepers

Alexander Nübel made 32 appearances for VfB Stuttgart and kept 11 clean sheets

Mark Flekken played 22 times for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and achieved 8 clean sheets

Influences

VfB Stuttgart shows home strength with an average of 2.08 home goals scored and 1.15 home goals conceded per game

The MHPArena has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

At the venue, both teams scored in 40% of the games

Also, over 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of the games

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