Bundesliga
Hamburger SV - SC Freiburg
05/10/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.3
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
League
The Lab
- 1SC Freiburg with Jordy Makengo: 3.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Hamburger SV with Damion Downs: 5.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3SC Freiburg: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4SC Freiburg: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 5Hamburger SV: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
32%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis indicates a finely balanced match, with a home win probability of 36%, a draw of 32%, and an away win of 33%
- SC Freiburg's away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.91 goals per away game
- Hamburger SV is also looking for a new top scorer, as Robert Glatzel (3 goals, 2 assists) and William Mikelbrencis (0 goals, 4 assists) are missing from the starting lineup
Risk Factors
- SC Freiburg had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Hamburger SV's goal production is currently stagnating (1.0) compared to their season average (1.3)
Overview
Hamburger SV (12th place, 34 points) host SC Freiburg (7th place, 44 points) at Volksparkstadion
Bundesliga match on May 10, 2026, 3:30 PM
HSV is fighting against relegation, while Freiburg is contending for a European spot
Form
Hamburger SV's form in the last five matches is DLLLW
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
The home team recorded 1 win and 1 draw, with 3 losses
SC Freiburg's form in their last five matches is WLLDW
The away team achieved 2 wins and 1 draw, with 2 losses
Statistics
Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.13 goals per game and concedes 1.59 goals
At home, the average is 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded
SC Freiburg has a season average of 1.41 goals scored and 1.66 goals conceded
Away from home, SC Freiburg averages 1.45 goals scored and concedes 2.91 goals
Volksparkstadion sees an average of 2.2 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of matches at Volksparkstadion
40% of matches at Volksparkstadion ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 2 head-to-head matches between the two teams, Hamburger SV recorded no wins
SC Freiburg won 2 matches, with 0 draws
Hamburger SV scored 2 goals, while SC Freiburg scored 4 goals
The last encounter on January 10, 2026, ended in a 1:2 victory for SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg has been dominant in recent encounters
Key Players
For Hamburger SV, Fábio Vieira is a key player with 6 goals and 5 assists, holding an average rating of 7.14
Luka Vuskovic scored 5 goals with an average rating of 7.19
Albert Sambi Lokonga contributed 5 goals and has an average rating of 6.89
For SC Freiburg, Igor Matanovic is a crucial player with 8 goals and 1 assist, holding an average rating of 6.83
Vincenzo Grifo shines with 7 goals and 3 assists at an average rating of 6.96, and his form is rising
Johan Manzambi recorded 5 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 7.03
Goalkeepers
Daniel Heuer Fernandes is the goalkeeper for Hamburger SV, featuring in 32 matches
He recorded 6 clean sheets this season
For SC Freiburg, Noah Atubolu is the goalkeeper, also with 32 appearances
He kept his goal clean 6 times this season
Influences
Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.1 goals at home and concedes 1.0 goals
SC Freiburg scores 1.45 goals away and concedes 2.91 goals
Volksparkstadion shows an average of 2.2 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of HSV's recent home matches
40% of these matches ended with over 2.5 goals