Friendly International

Croatia - Belgium

06/02/2026, 04:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Croatia
1.7
Total xG
2.8
Belgium
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CROBEL

Croatia

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.09
33% of goal output missing (only 40% available)

Belgium

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
33% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

27%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Croatia with a 48% probability
  • Belgium's Offensive Power: Belgium averages 3.0 goals per game and recorded 5.5 shots on target in recent matches
  • Head-to-Head History: Belgium was dominant in the last 3 direct encounters with 1 win and 2 draws
Risk Factors
  • Croatia's Squad Strength: Only 40% of the usual starting eleven strength is available according to the analysis
  • Belgium's Injuries: Z. Debast (Leg Injury) and L. Trossard (Unknown Injury) are sidelined
  • Croatia's Defense: Croatia conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game this season
Overview

Croatia host Belgium in a Friendly International match at Stadion HNK Rijeka on June 2, 2026, 5:00 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Croatia with 48% probability

A draw is calculated at 27% and an away win for Belgium at 25%

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Croatia has a form of WL in their last two matches

This equates to 1 win and 1 loss

The last match resulted in a loss (1-3 against Brazil)

Belgium showed a form of WD in their last two matches

This equates to 1 win and 1 draw

The last match resulted in a draw (1-1 against Mexico)

Statistics

Croatia averaged 1.5 goals scored per game and conceded 2.0 goals per game this season

Belgium averaged 3.0 goals scored per game and conceded 1.5 goals per game

At Stadion HNK Rijeka, an average of 2.2 goals per game were scored

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, there were 0 wins for Croatia, 1 win for Belgium, and 2 draws

The goal difference is 2:3 in favor of Belgium

The last encounter on December 1, 2022, ended in a 0-0 draw

Belgium was recently dominant in direct duels

Key Players

For Croatia, Ivan Perišić stands out with 2 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games, and Petar Musa with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Petar Sučić contributed 1 goal in the last 5 games

For Belgium, Kevin De Bruyne  is important with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games, and Maxim De Cuyper with 3 assists in the last 5 games

Youri Tielemans scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Croatia's goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic has 0 clean sheets this season

Belgium's goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has 0 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will take place on a grass surface at Stadion HNK Rijeka

An average of 2.2 goals per game were scored at the stadium

The home team Croatia has not played any home games this season

Belgium averaged 3.0 away goals scored and 1.5 away goals conceded this season

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.