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Croatia – Belgium0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Croatia
1.68
Total xG
2.83
Belgium
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Croatia | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| 33% of goal output missing (only 40% available) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 88% available) |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Croatia with a 48% probability
- Belgium's Offensive Power: Belgium averages 3.0 goals per game and recorded 5.5 shots on target in recent matches
- Head-to-Head History: Belgium was dominant in the last 3 direct encounters with 1 win and 2 draws
Risks
- Croatia's Squad Strength: Only 40% of the usual starting eleven strength is available according to the analysis
- Belgium's Injuries: Z. Debast (Leg Injury) and L. Trossard (Unknown Injury) are sidelined
- Croatia's Defense: Croatia conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
Croatia48%
Draw27%
Belgium25%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Croatia or draw75%
Belgium or draw52%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:2
Final score
Lineups
Croatia 3-4-2-1 · Belgium 3-4-2-1
Croatia
- 1 D. Livaković
- 6 J. Šutalo
- 22 L. Vušković
- 4 J. Gvardiol
- 2 J. Stanisic
- 10 L. Modrić
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 14 I. Perišić
- 17 P. Sučić
- 16 M. Baturina
- 26 P. Musa
Belgium
- 1 T. Courtois
- 25 N. Ngoy
- 24 A. Mvom Onana
- 3 A. Theate
- 22 A. Saelemaekers
- 23 N. Raskin
- 8 Y. Tielemans
- 5 M. De Cuyper
- 7 K. De Bruyne
- 11 J. Doku
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
Substitutes
- 18 K. Jakić
- 9 A. Kramarić
- 20 I. Matanovic
- 5 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 21 L. Sučić
- 11 A. Budimir
- 12 I. Pandur
- 15 M. Pašalić
- 23 D. Kotarski
- 7 N. Moro
- 25 M. Erlić
- 19 T. Fruk
- 3 M. Pongracic
- 13 N. Vlašić
- 24 M. Pasalic
- 21 T. Castagne
- 6 A. Witsel
- 26 M. Fernandez Pardo
- 15 T. Meunier
- 19 D. da Silva Moreira
- 13 M. Penders
- 12 S. Lammens
- 14 D. Lukebakio
- 18 J. Seys
- 20 H. Vanaken
- 4 B. Mechele
- 9 R. Lukaku Menama
- 16 K. De Winter
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