Friendly International

France - Côte d'Ivoire

06/04/2026, 07:10 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
France
1.8
Total xG
3.3
Côte d'Ivoire
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
FRACD

France

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+1.17
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 44, 42 places gap)
+0.13
20% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Côte d'Ivoire

Attack strength (1.49x league average)
+0.52
Standings disadvantage (pos 44 vs 2, 42 places gap)
-0.27
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.14
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.05
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Côte d'Ivoire with Guela Doué: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (4 of 6 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

25%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: France is the favorite to win with a 44% probability
  • Offensive Strength: France maintains a consistent scoring rate, averaging 2.5 goals per game this season
  • Defensive Strength: Côte d'Ivoire kept a clean sheet in both games this season and conceded 0.0 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • For Côte d'Ivoire, only 67% of the usual starting eleven strength is available
  • France has not kept a clean sheet in any game this season
  • Côte d'Ivoire averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

France will host Côte d'Ivoire in a Friendly International match at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau

The game is scheduled for June 4, 2026, 9:10 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 44% probability

A draw is rated at 25%, while an away win has a 31% chance

Form

France shows a perfect 'WW' form in their last two matches

The team won both games, most recently a 3-1 away victory against Colombia

Côte d'Ivoire's form across all competitions is 'DLWWW'

Over their last five games, the team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, including 3 consecutive wins recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

France has scored an average of 2.5 goals per game this season and conceded 1.0 goal per game

Both of their two matches saw over 2.5 goals and both teams scored

Côte d'Ivoire also scored an average of 2.5 goals per game this season but conceded 0.0 goals per game

The team kept a clean sheet in both of their two matches and neither game saw both teams scoring

At Stade de la Beaujoire, the last five matches have seen an average of 2.6 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches, and 40% ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head data is available

Key Players

For France, Marcus Thuram is a key player with 1 season goal and 1 assist

In his last 5 games, he scored 3 goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.26

Michael Olise, another attacker, has 1 season assist and 2 goals plus 1 assist in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.43

Kylian Mbappé contributed 1 goal this season and scored 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.25

For Côte d'Ivoire, Simon Adingra is noteworthy with 1 season goal and 1 goal in his last 5 games, holding a rating of 6.61

Wilfried Singo, a defender, has 1 season goal and 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games with a rating of 6.99

Elye Wahi, an attacker, scored 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games with a rating of 6.99

Goalkeepers

France's goalkeeper, Mike Maignan, has a season average rating of 6.73 and a 7.08 rating in his last 5 games

Côte d'Ivoire's goalkeeper, Yahia Fofana, has a season rating of 7.26 and a 6.66 rating in his last 5 games

Côte d'Ivoire has 2 clean sheets this season, while France has 0 clean sheets

Influences

France has not played any home games this season

Côte d'Ivoire scored an average of 2.0 goals per game in their 2 away matches and conceded 0.0 goals per game, with one clean sheet

The stadium, Stade de la Beaujoire, has an average of 2.6 goals per game

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