Match report →
France – Côte d'Ivoire1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
France
1.81
Total xG
3.31
Côte d'Ivoire
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | France | Côte d'Ivoire |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +1.17 | |
| Attack strength (1.49x league average) | +0.52 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 44 vs 2, 42 places gap) | −0.27 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 44, 42 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 20% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: France is the favorite to win with a 44% probability
- Offensive Strength: France maintains a consistent scoring rate, averaging 2.5 goals per game this season
- Defensive Strength: Côte d'Ivoire kept a clean sheet in both games this season and conceded 0.0 goals per game
Risks
- For Côte d'Ivoire, only 67% of the usual starting eleven strength is available
- France has not kept a clean sheet in any game this season
- Côte d'Ivoire averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
France44%
Draw25%
Côte d'Ivoire31%
Double chance
France or draw69%
Côte d'Ivoire or draw56%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Côte d'Ivoire with Guela Doué: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (4 of 6 games)
Lineups
France 4-1-4-1 · Côte d'Ivoire 4-4-2
France
- 16 M. Maignan
- 5 J. Koundé
- 15 I. Konaté
- 4 D. Upamecano
- 19 T. Hernández
- 8 A. Tchouaméni
- 11 M. Olise
- 24 M. Cherki
- 14 A. Rabiot
- 9 M. Thuram
- 10 K. Mbappé
Côte d'Ivoire
- 1 Y. Fofana
- 17 G. Doué
- 5 W. Singo
- 20 E. Agbadou
- 3 G. Konan
- 14 O. Diakité
- 8 F. Kessié
- 6 S. Fofana
- 11 Y. Diomande
- 12 S. Wahi
- 10 S. Adingra
Substitutes
- 1 B. Samba
- 23 R. Risser
- 25 M. Akliouche
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 12 B. Barcola
- 7 O. Dembélé
- 20 D. Doue
- 18 W. Zaire Emery
- 3 L. Digne
- 26 M. Lacroix
- 22 J. Mateta
- 17 W. Saliba
- 2 M. Gusto
- 6 K. Kone
- 13 N. Kanté
- 24 B. Touré
- 19 N. Pépé
- 15 A. Traoré
- 18 I. Sangaré
- 22 E. Guessand
- 7 K. Odilon
- 9 A. Bonny
- 2 O. Diomande
- 23 A. Lafont
- 13 C. Operi
- 4 J. Seri
- 25 P. Guiagon
- 16 M. Kone
- 26 C. Inao Oulaï
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