Friendly International

Canada - Uzbekistan

06/02/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Canada
1.6
Total xG
2.9
Uzbekistan
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CANUZB

Canada

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.62
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.21
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 26 vs 54, 28 places gap)
+0.11
Full strength squad available

Uzbekistan

Attack strength (1.78x league average)
+0.63
Standings disadvantage (pos 54 vs 26, 28 places gap)
-0.23
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.05
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Canada with Mathieu Choinière: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

28%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Critical absence: Uzbekistan has only 33% of their active goal production available
  • Canada's form: The home team is unbeaten in their last 5 games, supporting the 42% home win prediction
  • BMO Field as a goal factory: The stadium has a high goal-scoring rate (averaging 4.6 goals per game), with a 100% 'Both teams to score' rate
Risk Factors
  • Limited data on head-to-head encounters, as no historical meetings were found
  • Canada's goal production is stagnant at 1.5 goals, while the season average is 1.8, indicating a negative form trend
  • Uzbekistan is counter-oriented and averaged 4.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Canada hosts Uzbekistan at BMO Field in a Friendly International on June 2, 2026, 2:00 AM. Canada aims to demonstrate its home strength. For both teams, this is an opportunity to test tactics and evaluate players.

Form

Canada is unbeaten in their last five matches, with 2 wins and 3 draws. Recent results include a 0-0 draw against Tunisia and a 2-2 draw against Iceland. Uzbekistan's form consists of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games. They recently drew 0-0 with Venezuela and secured a 3-1 victory over Gabon. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Canada has scored an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 0.67 goals. Uzbekistan has scored an average of 1.5 goals per game and conceded an average of 0.5 goals. BMO Field has seen an average of 4.6 total goals per game in the last five matches. All five of these matches saw both teams score. More than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games.

Key Players

For Canada, Jonathan David stands out, scoring 2 goals in two season appearances with an average rating of 7.36. Richie Laryea showed rising form in his last five games with 2 goals, and Liam Millar achieved a season average rating of 7.46. On Uzbekistan's side, Eldor Shomurodov scored 1 goal in one season appearance. Oston Urunov contributed 2 goals in his last four games, and Otabek Shukurov provided 1 assist in his last five matches.

Goalkeepers

Canada's goalkeeper Maxime Crêpeau has achieved an average rating of 6.68 in 1 season appearance. Uzbekistan's goalkeeper Abduvokhid Nematov reached an average rating of 6.50 in 1 season appearance. Canada has kept two clean sheets this season, while Uzbekistan has one.

Influences

The match will be played on a grass surface at BMO Field. The venue's statistics indicate a tendency for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.6 total goals per match. Both teams scored in 5 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games.

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