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Canada – Uzbekistan2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Canada
1.58
Total xG
2.91
Uzbekistan
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Canada | Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.78x league average) | +0.63 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.62 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 54 vs 26, 28 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.15 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 26 vs 54, 28 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical absence: Uzbekistan has only 33% of their active goal production available
- Canada's form: The home team is unbeaten in their last 5 games, supporting the 42% home win prediction
- BMO Field as a goal factory: The stadium has a high goal-scoring rate (averaging 4.6 goals per game), with a 100% 'Both teams to score' rate
Risks
- Limited data on head-to-head encounters, as no historical meetings were found
- Canada's goal production is stagnant at 1.5 goals, while the season average is 1.8, indicating a negative form trend
- Uzbekistan is counter-oriented and averaged 4.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Canada42%
Draw28%
Uzbekistan31%
Double chance
Canada or draw69%
Uzbekistan or draw58%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Canada with Mathieu Choinière: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Canada 4-4-2 · Uzbekistan 3-4-2-1
Canada
- 16 M. Crépeau
- 2 A. Johnston
- 15 M. Bombito
- 13 D. Cornelius
- 22 R. Laryea
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 7 S. Antunes Eustáquio
- 8 I. Koné
- 11 L. Millar
- 10 J. David
- 9 C. Larin
Uzbekistan
- 12 A. Nematov
- 2 A. Khusanov
- 18 A. Kakhramonjon
- 5 R. Ashurmatov
- 4 F. Sayfiyev
- 9 O. Khamrobekov
- 7 O. Shukurov
- 13 S. Nasrullayev
- 19 A. Ganiev
- 11 O. Urunov
- 14 E. Shomurodov
Substitutes
- 6 M. Choiniere
- 12 T. Oluwaseyi
- 20 A. Ahmed
- 18 O. Goodman
- 3 A. Jones
- 24 P. Akinpelu
- 25 N. Saliba
- 23 N. Sigur
- 27 Z. Bassong
- 5 J. Waterman
- 29 J. Nelson
- 28 R. Priso-Mbongue
- 21 J. Osorio
- 1 D. St Clair
- 4 L. De Fougerolles
- 22 A. Fayzullayev
- 23 S. Esanov
- 8 J. Iskanderov
- 1 U. Yusupov
- 25 A. Ulmasaliev
- 27 J. O'rozov
- 17 D. Khamdamov
- 15 U. Eshmuradov
- 6 A. Mozgovoy
- 21 I. Sergeev
- 28 A. Amonov
- 20 J. Jaloliddinov
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