Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 - FC Union Berlin
05/10/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.7
0.8
2:0
12%1:1
11%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
FSV Mainz 05
FC Union Berlin
League
The Lab
- 1FC Union Berlin: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)
- 2FC Union Berlin: 84% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 3FC Union Berlin with András Schäfer: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4FC Union Berlin: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5FSV Mainz 05: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
63%
Draw
24%
Away Win
13%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
87%
Away or Draw
37%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Mainz as favorites according to the analysis model: The model predicts a home win probability of 63% and 1.93 expected home goals compared to 0.79 for the visitors
- Union's away weakness: Union Berlin concedes an average of 2.38 goals per away game and showed poor form in their last five away matches with 0 wins and 3 losses
- Mainz's offensive power at home: Mainz 05 scored an average of 1.25 goals at home this season and recently recorded an average of 5.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Union's weak away defense: FC Union Berlin concedes an average of 2.38 goals per away game, making their defense vulnerable
- Mainz's stagnant goal production: FSV Mainz 05's goal production has recently stalled at 1.2 goals per game, while the season average is 1.4, indicating a negative trend
- Historical dominance of Union: In head-to-head matches, Union Berlin has been the more dominant team, with 2 wins and 3 draws compared to 0 wins for Mainz in 5 games
Overview
FSV Mainz 05 (10th place, 37 points) host FC Union Berlin (13th place, 33 points) at the Mewa Arena
Bundesliga match on May 10, 2026, 7:30 PM
A mid-table clash is set
Form
FSV Mainz 05's form in the last five matches: LLDLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with the last result being a win
FC Union Berlin's form in the last five games is: DLLLD
This equates to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a draw as the last result
Statistics
Mainz 05 scores an average of 1.28 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals
They kept 3 clean sheets
Union Berlin averages 1.16 goals scored and 1.78 goals conceded per match
They managed 6 clean sheets
Mainz 05 scores an average of 1.25 goals at home and concedes 1.38 goals
Union Berlin scored 1.15 goals away and conceded 2.38 goals per game
The Mewa Arena sees an average of 3.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 40% of matches, and 40% of matches had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz 05 recorded 0 wins, Union Berlin had 2 wins, and there were 3 draws
The goal difference is 6:10 in favor of Union Berlin
The last encounter on January 10, 2026, ended in a 2:2 draw
Union Berlin has been the more dominant team in recent direct encounters
Key Players
For FSV Mainz 05, Nadiem Amiri with 11 goals and 2 assists at an average rating of 7.38, Phillip Tietz with 4 goals and 2 assists, and Paul Nebel with 5 goals and 1 assist are key players
Sheraldo Becker has shown 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
At FC Union Berlin, Andrej Ilic with 2 goals and 9 assists and an average rating of 6.86, Ilyas Ansah with 5 goals and 2 assists, and Oliver Burke with 5 goals and 1 assist are prominent
Andrej Ilic's form is rising with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Robin Zentner is in goal for Mainz 05
Mainz 05 has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Carl Klaus is in goal for Union Berlin
Union Berlin recorded 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
Mainz 05 scored an average of 1.25 goals at home and conceded 1.38 goals
Union Berlin's away record shows 1.15 goals scored and 2.38 goals conceded
The Mewa Arena averages 3.0 goals per game over 5 matches, with a 40% BTTS rate and 40% Over 2.5 rate