Friendly International

Brazil - Croatia

04/01/2026, 12:00 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Brazil
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Croatia
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
BRACRO

Brazil

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.15
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.09
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

Croatia

Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.23
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.47
+0.47
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

28%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a very tight match with a home win probability of 39%, a draw probability of 28%, and an away win probability of 33%
  • Brazil showed possession dominance in their last 5 matches with an average of 59% possession and 4.8 shots on target
  • Croatia operated counter-oriented in their last game with 42% possession and an average of 3.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • The data situation regarding the usual starting eleven strength is critical for Brazil, as only 0% of the active goal threat could be determined
  • For Croatia, the data situation regarding the usual starting eleven strength is also critical, as only 0% of the active goal threat could be determined
  • For Brazil, xG values are unavailable in 4 out of 5 recent matches, which limits offensive analysis
Overview

Brazil host Croatia in a Friendly International match on April 1, 2026, 1:00 AM

Form

Brazil's form across all competitions is WLWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Brazil recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

The last match ended in a loss

Croatia's form across all competitions is W

Croatia recorded 1 win in their last 1 matches

The last match ended in a win

Statistics

Brazil scored an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and conceded 2.0 goals

Croatia scored an average of 2.0 goals per away game and conceded 1.0 goals

In Brazil's matches, both teams scored once

In Croatia's matches, both teams scored once

Over 2.5 goals was achieved in Brazil's only game this season

Over 2.5 goals was achieved in Croatia's only game this season

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not contain any historical head-to-head matches between these two teams

Key Players

For Brazil, Marquinhos is a defender who played in 3 of the last 5 matches

Marquinhos scored 1 goal in the last 5 matches

Vinicius Junior is an attacker who was listed in Brazil's recent lineups

Matheus Cunha is an attacker who was listed in Brazil's recent lineups

For Croatia, Dominik Livakovic is a goalkeeper with an average rating of 7.31 this season

Dominik Livakovic played in 3 of Croatia's last 5 matches

Ivan Perišić is an attacker who was listed in Croatia's recent lineups

Andrej Kramaric is a midfielder who was listed in Croatia's recent lineups

Goalkeepers

Brazil's goalkeeper Bento was listed in the home team's recent lineups

Brazil has achieved 0 clean sheets this season

Croatia's goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic had an average rating of 7.04 in the last 5 matches

Croatia has achieved 0 clean sheets this season

Influences

Brazil scored an average of 1.0 goals and conceded 2.0 goals in home games

Croatia scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 1.0 goals in away games

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