Bundesliga
RB Leipzig - St. Pauli
05/09/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.1
0.8
2:0
12%2:1
10%1:1
9%3:0
9%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
RB Leipzig
St. Pauli
League
The Lab
- 1St. Pauli with Mathias Rasmussen: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2RB Leipzig: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- 3RB Leipzig with Max Finkgräfe: 4.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4RB Leipzig: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5RB Leipzig: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
70%
Draw
20%
Away Win
11%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
89%
Away or Draw
30%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Pipeline analysis: A home win probability of around 70% for RB Leipzig indicates a clear favorite
- Form and standings: RB Leipzig is in 3rd place with strong form, while St. Pauli is in 17th place fighting relegation
- Matchup advantage: RB Leipzig's strong home offense (2.0 goals/game) meets St. Pauli's weak away defense (2.08 goals conceded/game)
Risk Factors
- St. Pauli averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- St. Pauli concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game
Overview
RB Leipzig (3rd place, 62 points) host St. Pauli (17th place, 26 points) at the Red Bull Arena. Bundesliga match on May 9, 2026, 3:30 PM. RB Leipzig aims to secure its Champions League spot, while St. Pauli fights for Bundesliga survival.
Form
RB Leipzig is in excellent form with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games (WWWWL). Their last match resulted in a loss against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. St. Pauli is going through a difficult period with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches (DLDLL), including two consecutive losses recently. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
RB Leipzig scores an average of 1.97 goals per game and concedes 1.31 goals per game this season. At home, they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. St. Pauli averages 0.84 goals scored and 1.72 goals conceded per game this season. Away from home, St. Pauli concedes an average of 2.08 goals per game. The Red Bull Arena sees an average of 3.4 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig secured 2 wins, St. Pauli 0, and there were 2 draws. RB Leipzig scored a total of 7 goals, while St. Pauli scored 3. The last encounter on January 27, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw.
Key Players
For RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner (13 goals, 8 assists), Yan Diomande (12 goals, 7 assists), and Rômulo (9 goals, 5 assists) have been outstanding this season. Not nominated for RB Leipzig are Antonio Nusa (4 goals/4 assists), Nicolas Seiwald (0 goals/2 assists), and Max Finkgräfe (1 goal/1 assist). For St. Pauli, Andréas Hountondji (4 goals, 0 assists), Martijn Kaars (3 goals, 1 assist), and Joel Chima Fujita (1 goal, 3 assists) are key players. For St. Pauli, Danel Sinani (5 goals/3 assists), Mathias Pereira Lage (2 goals/2 assists), and Hauke Wahl (2 goals/1 assist) are not in the lineup, accounting for 79% of the usual starting XI's goal threat.
Goalkeepers
Maarten Vandevoordt of RB Leipzig has an average rating of 6.79 in 11 season appearances. RB Leipzig has kept 11 clean sheets this season. For St. Pauli, Nikola Vasilj has an average rating of 6.82 in 32 season appearances. St. Pauli has achieved 5 clean sheets this season.
Influences
RB Leipzig holds a strong home advantage, scoring an average of 2.0 goals per home game while conceding only 1.0. The Red Bull Arena is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.