Friendly International

Belgium - Tunisia

06/06/2026, 01:00 PM

5 : 0
Expected Goals
Belgium
2.2
Total xG
2.9
Tunisia
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

1:1

10%

3:0

10%

2:1

9%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
BELTUN

Belgium

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+1.10
Attack strength (1.49x league average)
-0.88
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 46, 38 places gap)
+0.15

Tunisia

Attack weakness (0.61x league average)
-0.46
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.22
Standings disadvantage (pos 46 vs 8, 38 places gap)
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.03
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.36
+0.36
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

70%

Draw

21%

Away Win

10%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

90%

Away or Draw

30%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Belgium with 70% probability
  • Critical weakening for Tunisia: Only 0% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available
  • Belgium's offensive strength: Belgium averages 2.67 goals per game, while Tunisia only averages 0.33 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for Tunisia's xG values (3/5 values missing)
  • Tunisia averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Belgium host Tunisia at Stade Roi Baudouin. Friendly International match on June 6, 2026, 3:00 PM. The mathematical analysis identifies Belgium as clear favorites with a high home win probability of 70%.

Form

Belgium has shown good form in their last three matches with two wins and one draw (WDW). Their most recent result was a 2-0 away win against Croatia. Tunisia has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five games (WDWDL). Their last outing was a 0-1 away loss to Austria. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Belgium has averaged 2.67 goals scored per game and conceded 1.00 goals per game this season. The team achieved 1 clean sheet, and both teams scored in 2 matches. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 match. Tunisia has averaged 0.33 goals scored per game and conceded 0.33 goals per game. The team kept 2 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 0 matches. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 0 matches.

Head-to-Head

There has only been one head-to-head encounter between these two teams. This match took place on June 23, 2018, with Belgium securing a clear 5-2 victory. Belgium has scored a total of 5 goals and conceded 2 goals in this direct clash, showing dominance as the home team.

Key Players

For Belgium, Youri Tielemans (Midfielder) is a key player with 1 season goal and 1 assist, 2 goals in his last 5 games, and rising form. Thomas Meunier (Defender) contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 games, also showing rising form. Kevin De Bruyne (Midfielder) has 1 assist in his last 5 games and rising form. For Tunisia, Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud (Midfielder) has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games and rising form. Ellyes Skhiri (Midfielder) shows stable form. Hazem Mastouri (Attacker) scored 1 goal in 3 games.

Goalkeepers

Belgian goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois recorded 1 clean sheet this season. Tunisian goalkeeper Abdelmouhib Chamakh has 2 clean sheets for his team this season.

Influences

This match will be played on a grass surface. No specific historical venue data or weather information is available to highlight further influences.

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