Match report →
Belgium – Tunisia5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Belgium
2.16
Total xG
2.87
Tunisia
0.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Belgium | Tunisia |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +1.10 | |
| Attack strength (1.49x league average) | −0.88 | |
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.46 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.22 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 46, 38 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 46 vs 8, 38 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Belgium with 70% probability
- Critical weakening for Tunisia: Only 0% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available
- Belgium's offensive strength: Belgium averages 2.67 goals per game, while Tunisia only averages 0.33 goals per game
Risks
- Limited data availability for Tunisia's xG values (3/5 values missing)
- Tunisia averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Belgium70%
Draw21%
Tunisia10%
Double chance
Belgium or draw90%
Tunisia or draw30%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
2:0
13%
1:1
10%
3:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
5:0
Final score
Lineups
Belgium 4-2-3-1 · Tunisia 4-4-1-1
Belgium
- 1 T. Courtois
- 15 T. Meunier
- 25 N. Ngoy
- 4 B. Mechele
- 21 T. Castagne
- 24 A. Mvom Onana
- 8 Y. Tielemans
- 10 L. Trossard
- 7 K. De Bruyne
- 11 J. Doku
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
Tunisia
- 1 A. Chamakh
- 5 A. Arous
- 3 M. Talbi
- 4 O. Rekik
- 21 A. Ben Hmida
- 14 K. Ayari
- 15 M. Belhaj Mahmoud
- 17 E. Skhiri
- 7 M. Achouri
- 11 I. Gharbi
- 9 H. Mastouri
Substitutes
- 5 M. De Cuyper
- 3 A. Theate
- 6 A. Witsel
- 26 M. Fernandez Pardo
- 19 D. da Silva Moreira
- 13 M. Penders
- 12 S. Lammens
- 14 D. Lukebakio
- 18 J. Seys
- 20 H. Vanaken
- 9 R. Lukaku Menama
- 23 N. Raskin
- 22 A. Saelemaekers
- 16 K. De Winter
- 13 R. Khedira
- 8 E. Saad
- 6 D. Bronn
- 2 A. Abdi
- 10 H. Mejbri
- 20 Y. Valery
- 25 A. Slimane
- 26 S. Tounekti
- 18 R. Elloumi
- 22 S. Ben Hsan
- 12 M. Ben Ouannes
- 19 F. Chaouat
- 16 A. Dahmen
- 23 M. Neffati
- 24 R. Chikhaoui
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