Match report →
Austria – Tunisia1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Austria
1.53
Total xG
2.43
Tunisia
0.91
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Austria | Tunisia |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +1.00 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 46 vs 22, 24 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 22 vs 46, 24 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) |
Key factors
- Austria's offensive strength with an average of 3.0 home goals and 0.5 goals conceded
- Tunisia's strong away defense with an average of 0.0 goals conceded and 2 clean sheets
- Tactical contrast: Austria's possession-based play (58% possession) meets Tunisia's counter-attacking approach (43% possession)
Risks
- Tunisia's average of 2.6 shots on target in the last 5 games could limit their offensive penetration
- Limited data available for expected goals (xG) in Tunisia's last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Austria50%
Draw29%
Tunisia21%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Double chance
Austria or draw79%
Tunisia or draw50%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
10%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
Lineups
Austria 4-2-3-1 · Tunisia 4-2-3-1
Austria
- 1 A. Schlager
- 5 S. Posch
- 15 P. Lienhart
- 8 D. Olatukunbo Alaba
- 20 K. Laimer
- 6 N. Seiwald
- 4 X. Schlager
- 18 R. Schmid
- 11 M. Gregoritsch
- 9 M. Sabitzer
- 7 M. Arnautović
Tunisia
- 1 A. Chamakh
- 20 Y. Valery
- 3 M. Talbi
- 4 O. Rekik
- 2 A. Abdi
- 13 R. Khedira
- 17 E. Skhiri
- 25 A. Slimane
- 10 H. Mejbri
- 11 I. Gharbi
- 19 F. Chaouat
Substitutes
- 21 P. Wimmer
- 23 M. Friedl
- 22 A. Prass
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka
- 16 P. Mwene
- 2 D. Affengruber
- 3 K. Danso
- 24 P. Wanner
- 12 F. Wiegele
- 10 F. Grillitsch
- 26 A. Schöpf
- 13 P. Pentz
- 14 S. Kalajdzic
- 25 M. Svoboda
- 8 E. Saad
- 6 D. Bronn
- 15 M. Belhaj Mahmoud
- 7 M. Achouri
- 26 S. Tounekti
- 18 R. Elloumi
- 22 S. Ben Hsan
- 12 M. Ben Ouannes
- 14 K. Ayari
- 21 A. Ben Hmida
- 16 A. Dahmen
- 5 A. Arous
- 23 M. Neffati
- 24 R. Chikhaoui
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