Match report →
Portugal – Chile2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Portugal
1.83
Total xG
3.14
Chile
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portugal | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.07x league average) | +1.16 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | −0.71 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 57 vs 5, 52 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 57, 52 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 66% available) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Portugal with a 48% probability
- Portugal has been defensively strong this season, keeping 2 clean sheets in 2 games
- Chile conceded an average of 4.0 goals in their only away game this season
Risks
- Portugal averaged 3.5 shots on target in their last 2 games
- Chile scored an average of 2.5 goals in 2 season games
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 63% probability that both teams will score
All probabilities
Result
Portugal48%
Draw26%
Chile26%
Double chance
Portugal or draw74%
Chile or draw52%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chile: scored only after the break in 3 of 6 games
- Chile: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)
Lineups
Portugal 4-2-3-1 · Chile 4-4-2
Portugal
- 12 J. Malheiro de Sá
- 2 N. Cabral Semedo
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 13 R. Palma Veiga
- 20 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 24 S. Costa
- 10 B. Silva
- 26 F. Conceição
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 17 R. Conceição Leão
- 7 C. Ronaldo
Chile
- 12 L. Vigouroux
- 26 F. Faúndez
- 5 I. Román
- 3 G. Maripán Loaysa
- 17 G. Suazo Urbina
- 19 M. Gutiérrez
- 8 F. Loyola
- 6 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 11 D. Osorio Osorio
- 16 G. Tapia Dubournais
- 25 A. Arce
Substitutes
- 19 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 5 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 18 P. Lomba Neto
- 4 T. Araújo
- 14 G. Inácio
- 16 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
- 22 R. Dantas da Silva
- 1 D. Meireles Costa
- 21 R. Da Silva Neves
- 11 J. Sequeira
- 27 M. Silva Velho
- 22 N. Reichmuth
- 15 F. Sierralta Carvallo
- 10 L. Cepeda
- 1 T. Guilier
- 20 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 21 G. Millán
- 7 C. Montes
- 2 F. Hormazabal Berríos
- 18 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 23 B. Cortés Fernández
- 4 I. Lichnovsky Osorio
- 9 I. Morales Bravo
- 24 D. Ulloa Núñez
- 13 V. Méndez
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