Friendly International

Portugal - Chile

06/06/2026, 05:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Portugal
1.8
Total xG
3.1
Chile
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PORCHI

Portugal

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 57, 52 places gap)
+0.13
100% of goal output missing (only 66% available)

Chile

Attack strength (2.07x league average)
+1.16
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.71
Standings disadvantage (pos 57 vs 5, 52 places gap)
-0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.02

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.38
+0.38
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chile: scored only after the break in 3 of 6 games

  • 2
    Chile: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

26%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Portugal with a 48% probability
  • Portugal has been defensively strong this season, keeping 2 clean sheets in 2 games
  • Chile conceded an average of 4.0 goals in their only away game this season
Risk Factors
  • Portugal averaged 3.5 shots on target in their last 2 games
  • Chile scored an average of 2.5 goals in 2 season games
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 63% probability that both teams will score
Overview

Portugal host Chile at Estádio Nacional in a Friendly International match. The game will take place on June 6, 2026, 7:45 PM. The mathematical analysis suggests Portugal are slight favorites with a 48% probability of a home win.

Form

Portugal shows good form with a record of DW (1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses). W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss. Their last two away games include a 2-0 win against the United States and a 0-0 draw against Mexico. Chile's form is WWWWL (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss). Their most recent match was a 1-4 away loss to New Zealand, preceded by a 4-2 home win against Cape Verde Islands.

Statistics

Portugal has scored an average of 1.0 goal in 2 games this season and conceded no goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in these games and had no BTTS matches. Chile has been offensive with an average of 2.5 goals in 2 season games, but also conceded an average of 3.0 goals. Their only away match resulted in an average of 1.0 goal scored and 4.0 goals conceded. Chile's games saw BTTS and Over 2.5 goals in both instances.

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head meetings between these two teams were found in the provided dataset.

Key Players

For Portugal, Bruno Fernandes is a key midfielder with a season average rating of 7.72 and 2 assists. Cristiano Ronaldo scored 5 goals in his last 5 games. Francisco Conceição shows improved performance with 1 assist and a rising form trend (+0.97 delta). For Chile, Maximiliano Gutiérrez stands out in attack with 1 goal and 1 assist this season, plus 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games. Midfielder Vicente Tomás Pizarro Durcudoy scored 1 goal in his last 5 games and has a rising form trend. Gonzalo Tapia contributed 2 goals this season.

Goalkeepers

José Sá is Portugal's goalkeeper and has kept 2 clean sheets this season. Lawrence Vigouroux is Chile's goalkeeper, and his team has not kept any clean sheets this season.

Influences

The match will be played on a grass surface at Estádio Nacional. No weather data is available.

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