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Bundesliga

TSG Hoffenheim - Werder Bremen

05/09/2026, 01:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
TSG Hoffenheim
1.9
Total xG
2.8
Werder Bremen
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
THWB

TSG Hoffenheim

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.21
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap)
+0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.02
Full strength squad available

Werder Bremen

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.69
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap)
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.06
Jovan Milosevic on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    TSG Hoffenheim: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Werder Bremen with Senne Lynen: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Werder Bremen: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Werder Bremen: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

24%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Favorite Role: The mathematical analysis predicts a 60% home win probability for Hoffenheim
  • Hoffenheim's Home Strength: TSG Hoffenheim scores an average of 2.0 home goals per game
  • Werder Bremen's Defense: The visitors concede an average of 1.78 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Werder Bremen recently showed a positive trend, averaging 1.4 goals compared to 1.2 in the season average
  • TSG Hoffenheim conceded an average of 1.8 goals in recent matches, compared to 1.55 in the season average
  • At the PreZero Arena, both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, indicating a high probability for goals from both sides
Overview

TSG Hoffenheim (6th place, 58 points) host Werder Bremen (15th place, 32 points) at the PreZero Arena. It's a Bundesliga match on May 9, 2026, 3:30 PM. Hoffenheim are fighting for European spots, while Bremen are battling against relegation. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Hoffenheim with 60%

Form

TSG Hoffenheim's form in the last five games (all competitions) is LDWWD

This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

The last match ended in a 3-3 draw against VfB Stuttgart

Werder Bremen's form in the last five games is LLWDL

This consists of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

They lost their last match 1-3 against FC Augsburg

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

TSG Hoffenheim scores an average of 2.0 goals per game and concedes 1.5 goals per game this season

At home, Hoffenheim averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded per home game

They kept 6 clean sheets in the season

Werder Bremen averages 1.16 goals scored and 1.78 goals conceded per game this season

Away from home, Bremen averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded per away game

They also managed 6 clean sheets in the season

The PreZero Arena records an average of 3.0 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and 3 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, TSG Hoffenheim dominated with 4 wins

Werder Bremen managed only 1 win, with no draws

TSG Hoffenheim scored a total of 13 goals, while Werder Bremen scored 8 goals

The last encounter on January 27, 2026, saw TSG Hoffenheim win away with a 2-0 score

Key Players

For TSG Hoffenheim, Andrej Kramaric (14 goals, 5 assists) and Fisnik Asllani (10 goals, 8 assists) are key offensive players

Bazoumana Touré contributed 4 goals and 9 assists and shows a rising form trend

For Werder Bremen, Jens Stage (10 goals, 2 assists) and Romano Schmid (4 goals, 8 assists) are the top scorers

Both show a rising form trend in recent matches

Yukinari Sugawara is also an important playmaker with 6 assists

Goalkeepers

Oliver Baumann of TSG Hoffenheim made 32 season appearances and kept 6 clean sheets

Mio Backhaus of Werder Bremen played in 30 season matches and also achieved 6 clean sheets

Influences

The PreZero Arena is a high-scoring venue, averaging 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches at this stadium

3 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

TSG Hoffenheim shows a strong home performance with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded per home game on grass

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