Match report →
Scotland – Curacao4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Scotland
1.22
Total xG
2.42
Curacao
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Scotland | Curacao |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.48 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.03 |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: Scotland averaged 4.5 shots on target compared to Curacao's 2.0
- Form disparity: Scotland has 1 win in their last 4 games, while Curacao suffered 2 losses in their last 2
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a close contest with 35% for a home win, 31% for a draw, and 34% for an away win
Risks
- Curacao averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 2 games
- Curacao conceded an average of 3.5 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Scotland35%
Draw31%
Curacao34%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Double chance
Scotland or draw66%
Curacao or draw65%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
9%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
4:1
Final score
Lineups
Scotland 4-4-2 · Curacao 5-4-1
Scotland
- 21 Craig Gordon
- 2 A. Hickey
- 15 J. Souttar
- 26 S. McKenna
- 3 A. Robertson
- 17 B. Doak
- 8 B. Gilmour
- 23 K. McLean
- 11 R. Christie
- 20 L. Shankland
- 18 G. Hirst
Curacao
- 1 E. Room
- 5 S. Floranus
- 3 J. Gaari
- 23 R. Bazoer
- 18 A. Obispo
- 24 D. Fonville
- 21 T. Chong
- 8 L. Comenencia
- 10 L. Bacuna
- 7 J. Bacuna
- 9 J. Locadia
Substitutes
- 22 N. Patterson
- 1 A. Gunn
- 9 L. Dykes
- 16 D. Hyam
- 25 F. Curtis
- 12 L. Kelly
- 24 A. Ralston
- 5 G. Hanley
- 4 T. Fletcher
- 10 J. Wilson
- 13 J. Hendry
- 6 L. Graham
- 15 A. Martha
- 12 S. Hansen
- 14 K. Gorré
- 13 T. Noslin
- 25 T. Bodak
- 17 B. Kuwas
- 2 S. Sambo
- 11 J. Antonisse
- 20 J. Brenet
- 22 K. Felida
- 26 T. Doornbusch
- 4 R. van Eijma
- 6 G. Roemeratoe
- 16 J. Margaritha
- 19 G. Kastaneer
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