Match report →
England – New Zealand1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
England
1.60
Total xG
2.58
New Zealand
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | England | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 83 vs 4, 79 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 83, 79 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) | ||
| 54% of goal output missing (only 93% available) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for England with a 50% probability
- England exhibits a possession-dominant playing style with an average of 62% possession and 4.5 shots on target per game, while New Zealand plays a more counter-oriented style (45% possession, 3.4 shots on target)
- New Zealand is currently scoring more frequently (1.0) than their season average (0.9)
Risks
- For England, according to the squad analysis, only 0% of the usual goal threat is available
- New Zealand has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- New Zealand concedes an average of 2.33 goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
England50%
Draw28%
New Zealand22%
Double chance
England or draw78%
New Zealand or draw50%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New Zealand with Sarpreet Singh: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
Lineups
England 4-2-3-1 · New Zealand 4-2-3-1
England
- 1 J. Pickford
- 26 J. Quansah
- 5 J. Stones
- 6 M. Guehi
- 25 D. Spence
- 14 J. Henderson
- 16 K. Mainoo
- 19 O. Watkins
- 17 M. Rogers
- 11 M. Rashford
- 9 H. Kane
New Zealand
- 1 M. Crocombe
- 2 T. Payne
- 16 F. Surman
- 5 M. Boxall
- 13 L. Cacace
- 6 J. Bell
- 8 M. Stamenic
- 7 M. Garbett
- 10 S. Singh
- 11 E. Just
- 9 C. Wood
Substitutes
- 29 J. King
- 10 J. Bellingham
- 28 A. Scott
- 8 E. Anderson
- 2 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 13 D. Henderson
- 31 R. Ngumoha
- 30 E. Nwaneri
- 15 D. Burn
- 18 A. Gordon
- 12 V. Livramento
- 23 J. Trafford
- 3 N. O'Reilly
- 24 R. James
- 22 I. Toney
- 4 T. Bindon
- 18 B. Waine
- 26 T. Smith
- 20 C. McCowatt
- 19 B. Old
- 21 J. Randall
- 17 K. Barbarouses
- 3 F. De Vries
- 12 A. Paulsen
- 15 N. Pijnaker
- 24 C. Elliot
- 14 A. Rufer
- 25 L. Bayliss
- 22 M. Woud
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