Match report →
Canada – Republic of Ireland1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Canada
1.36
Total xG
2.60
Republic of Ireland
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Canada | Republic of Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −1.05 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +1.01 | |
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.47 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 61 vs 26, 35 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| Attack strength (1.85x league average) | +0.16 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 26 vs 61, 35 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 16% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 23% available) |
Key factors
- Republic of Ireland is expected to operate with only 24% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available
- Both teams exhibit offensive strength, with Canada averaging 5.2 shots on target in their last 5 games and Republic of Ireland averaging 5.8 shots on target in their last 4 games
- The mathematical model projects Canada with a 38% win probability, compared to 32% for Republic of Ireland
Risks
- Canada will only have 63% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available
- Canada has only 3 days of rest since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Canada38%
Draw30%
Republic of Ireland32%
Double chance
Canada or draw68%
Republic of Ireland or draw62%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Canada with Mathieu Choinière: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Canada: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Canada 4-4-2 · Republic of Ireland 3-4-2-1
Canada
- 16 M. Crépeau
- 2 A. Johnston
- 4 L. De Fougerolles
- 13 D. Cornelius
- 22 R. Laryea
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 8 I. Koné
- 7 S. Antunes Eustáquio
- 11 L. Millar
- 10 J. David
- 9 C. Larin
Republic of Ireland
- 1 M. Travers
- 5 J. O´Brien
- 22 N. Collins
- 4 J. Abankwah
- 2 S. Coleman
- 6 C. Coventry
- 8 D. Devoy
- 21 C. Ndaba
- 20 C. Ogbene
- 11 J. Umeh
- 7 T. Parrott
Substitutes
- 6 M. Choiniere
- 12 T. Oluwaseyi
- 15 M. Bombito
- 18 O. Goodman
- 3 A. Jones
- 24 P. Akinpelu
- 25 N. Saliba
- 23 N. Sigur
- 27 Z. Bassong
- 5 J. Waterman
- 29 J. Nelson
- 28 R. Priso-Mbongue
- 21 J. Osorio
- 1 D. St Clair
- 18 A. Murphy
- 3 L. Scales
- 10 J. McGrath
- 15 K. Leavy
- 16 E. McGinty
- 17 M. Healy
- 14 J. Hodge
- 9 M. Melia
- 19 A. Brennan
- 12 K. Phillips
- 23 C. Brann
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