Friendly International
Canada - Republic of Ireland
06/05/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.6
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
Canada
Republic of Ireland
League
The Lab
- 1Canada with Mathieu Choinière: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Canada: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
30%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Republic of Ireland is expected to operate with only 24% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available
- Both teams exhibit offensive strength, with Canada averaging 5.2 shots on target in their last 5 games and Republic of Ireland averaging 5.8 shots on target in their last 4 games
- The mathematical model projects Canada with a 38% win probability, compared to 32% for Republic of Ireland
Risk Factors
- Canada will only have 63% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available
- Canada has only 3 days of rest since their last match
Overview
Canada hosts the Republic of Ireland at Stade Saputo in a Friendly International match. The game is scheduled for June 5, 2026, 7:30 PM (EDT). The mathematical analysis suggests a closely contested match, with Canada having a 38% chance of winning. A draw is predicted with 30%, and a victory for the Republic of Ireland with 32%.
Form
Canada shows strong form with 'WWDDW', securing 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches. Their last result was a win. The Republic of Ireland also displays solid recent form with 'DDWW', achieving 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 4 matches. They ended with two consecutive wins. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Canada has scored an average of 1.25 goals per game this season and conceded 0.5 goals per game. They kept 3 clean sheets in 4 matches. The Republic of Ireland shows a strong defensive record with an average of 0.0 goals conceded per game and 3 clean sheets in 3 matches, while scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game. For Canada's home games, they scored 1.25 goals and conceded 0.5 goals on average. Stade Saputo has seen an average of 2.8 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
There are no historical head-to-head records available for these two teams in the provided dataset.
Key Players
For Canada, Jonathan David has 2 goals this season and an average rating of 7.24. Richie Laryea, a defender, scored 1 goal in his last 5 games. Stephen Eustaquio, a midfielder, shows stable form with 5 games played in his last 5 and an average rating of 6.67. For the Republic of Ireland, defender Nathan Collins scored 1 goal in 5 games, maintaining a season average rating of 7.68. Troy Parrott, an attacker, contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games. Defender Jake O'Brien also scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances.
Goalkeepers
Maxime Crépeau is the goalkeeper for Canada, who recorded 3 clean sheets this season. Mark Travers is in goal for the Republic of Ireland, whose team also achieved 3 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Canada plays at home at Stade Saputo, where they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded. Matches at this venue typically see an average of 2.8 total goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of games and over 2.5 goals in 40% of games.