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England – Costa Rica3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
England
1.55
Total xG
2.30
Costa Rica
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | England | Costa Rica |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.86 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.72 | |
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −0.53 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.36 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.4 season average) | −0.36 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 47 vs 4, 43 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 47, 43 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| 28% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis assigns England a favorite role with 55%
- England's outstanding defense this season with zero goals conceded
- Costa Rica's poor form with three losses in their last five games
Risks
- England's goal production has recently slowed, averaging 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.7 goals
- Costa Rica's goal production has recently slowed, averaging 1.0 goals compared to the season average of 1.8 goals
All probabilities
Result
England55%
Draw29%
Costa Rica17%
Double chance
England or draw83%
Costa Rica or draw45%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
12%
2:1
9%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Costa Rica with Álvaro Zamora: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- England with Jordan Henderson: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- England: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Costa Rica: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
England 4-2-3-1 · Costa Rica 4-1-4-1
England
- 1 J. Pickford
- 24 R. James
- 2 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 5 J. Stones
- 3 N. O'Reilly
- 8 E. Anderson
- 4 D. Rice
- 20 C. Madueke
- 10 J. Bellingham
- 18 A. Gordon
- 9 H. Kane
Costa Rica
- 1 P. Sequeira Mejías
- 2 S. Johnson
- 3 J. Mitchell
- 5 F. Faerrón Tristán
- 8 D. Araya
- 4 A. Salazar Arias
- 17 C. Mora
- 14 O. Galo Calderón
- 12 A. Soto Ruíz
- 10 J. Alcócer
- 9 M. Ugalde
Substitutes
- 26 J. Quansah
- 11 M. Rashford
- 16 K. Mainoo
- 14 J. Henderson
- 17 M. Rogers
- 19 O. Watkins
- 6 M. Guehi
- 13 D. Henderson
- 21 E. Eze
- 7 B. Saka
- 15 D. Burn
- 12 V. Livramento
- 23 J. Trafford
- 25 D. Spence
- 22 I. Toney
- 11 C. Núñez
- 20 H. Quirós
- 6 J. Peraza
- 23 A. Madriz
- 19 O. Sinclair Hernández
- 13 L. Flores Cordero
- 18 B. Mora
- 7 J. Ruíz Guadamúz
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