Friendly International

England - Costa Rica

06/10/2026, 09:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
England
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Costa Rica
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ENGCR

England

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.86
Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-0.53
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.36
Declining form (1.2 vs 2.4 season average)
-0.36
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 47, 43 places gap)
+0.11
Full strength squad available

Costa Rica

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.72
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.34
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 47 vs 4, 43 places gap)
-0.13
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
28% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Costa Rica with Álvaro Zamora: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    England with Jordan Henderson: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    England: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 4
    Costa Rica: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

29%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis assigns England a favorite role with 55%
  • England's outstanding defense this season with zero goals conceded
  • Costa Rica's poor form with three losses in their last five games
Risk Factors
  • England's goal production has recently slowed, averaging 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.7 goals
  • Costa Rica's goal production has recently slowed, averaging 1.0 goals compared to the season average of 1.8 goals
Overview

England hosts Costa Rica at Exploria Stadium in a Friendly International match on June 10, 2026, 9:00 PM

Form

England's current form is WWDLW, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

The last result was a 1-0 win against New Zealand

Costa Rica's form is LDDLL, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

The last result was a 1-3 loss against Colombia

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

England scored an average of 2.75 goals per game this season and conceded 0 goals on average

Costa Rica scored an average of 2.5 goals per game and conceded 0.7 goals on average

In home games, England scored an average of 3 goals and conceded no goals

Costa Rica conceded an average of 0.4 goals per away game

At Exploria Stadium, an average of 3.75 goals were scored per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 4 matches at the stadium

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 4 matches at the stadium

Head-to-Head

There has only been one previous head-to-head match between the two teams

This game ended in a 0-0 draw on June 24, 2014

Key Players

For England, key players include Harry Kane (5 goals in 5 games, avg 7.49 rating), Elliot Anderson (1 goal, 2 assists in 5 games, avg 7.24 rating), and Jude Bellingham (2 goals in 5 games, avg 7.14 rating)

For Costa Rica, Josimar AlcĂłcer (0 goals, 1 assist in 5 games, avg 6.66 rating), Manfred Ugalde (1 goal, 1 assist in 5 games, avg 6.98 rating), and Patrick Sequeira (0 goals in 5 games, avg 6.53 rating) are noteworthy

Goalkeepers

England's goalkeeper Jordan Pickford achieved 8 clean sheets this season

Costa Rica's goalkeeper Patrick Sequeira recorded 5 clean sheets

Influences

England shows a strong home performance with an average of 3 goals scored and no goals conceded

The grass surface at Exploria Stadium is the usual playing ground

An average of 3.75 total goals were scored in the last 4 matches at Exploria Stadium

Both teams scored in 75% of the matches at the stadium

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 50% of the matches at the stadium

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