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Colombia – Jordan2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Colombia
2.23
Total xG
3.35
Jordan
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Colombia | Jordan |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.62x league average) | +1.11 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.93 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.86 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.55 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 62 vs 13, 49 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 62, 49 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: Colombia is rated as a clear favorite with a 61% win probability
- Colombia averaged 6.4 shots on target in their last 5 games (offensively strong)
- Jordan's defense is vulnerable away, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per away game
Risks
- Colombia has only 6 days rest since their last match
- Jordan has only 7 days rest since their last match
- Jordan's tactics are counter-oriented with an average of 4.2 shots on target
All probabilities
Result
Colombia61%
Draw22%
Jordan17%
Double chance
Colombia or draw83%
Jordan or draw39%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
10%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Jordan with Mousa Tamari: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Colombia: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Colombia: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)
- Colombia: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 14)
- Colombia with Luis Suárez: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
Lineups
Colombia 4-2-3-1 · Jordan 5-4-1
Colombia
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 2 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 23 D. Sánchez Mina
- 3 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 17 J. Mojica Palacio
- 14 G. Puerta Molano
- 16 J. Lerma Solís
- 10 J. Rodríguez Rubio
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 7 L. Díaz Marulanda
- 25 L. Suárez Charris
Jordan
- 1 Y. Abu laila
- 23 E. Haddad
- 3 A. Musallam Naseeb
- 5 Y. Alarab
- 17 S. Obaid
- 20 M. Abu Taha
- 10 M. Al Tamari
- 21 N. Al-Rashdan
- 8 N. Al Rawabdeh
- 11 O. Shehade Fakhoury
- 9 A. Olwan
Substitutes
- 22 D. Machado Mena
- 19 J. Hernández Suárez
- 6 R. Rios
- 13 Y. Mina González
- 15 J. Portilla Orozco
- 26 A. Gomez
- 18 W. Ditta Pérez
- 21 J. Campaz
- 20 J. Quintero Paniagua
- 8 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 5 K. Castaño Gil
- 9 J. Córdoba Copete
- 1 D. Ospina Ramírez
- 24 Á. Montero Perales
- 24 A. Azaizeh
- 12 N. Khaleel Bani Ateyah
- 19 S. Salameh Al Rosan
- 4 H. Abudahab
- 6 Amer Jamous
- 13 M. Al Mardi
- 15 I. Sami
- 7 M. Abu Zrayq
- 22 A. Alfakhori
- 25 M. Mohammad Al Daoud
- 16 M. Abualnadi
- 14 R. Hasan
- 2 M. Hasan Abu Hasheesh
- 18 M. Taha
- 26 Anas Badawi
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