🇩🇪

Bundesliga

FC Köln - Heidenheim

05/10/2026, 03:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
FC Köln
1.7
Total xG
2.9
Heidenheim
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FKHEI

FC Köln

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.10
Ragnar Ache not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Eric Martel not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Jan Thielmann on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 86% available)

Heidenheim

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.30
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.30
Marnon Busch on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
Julian Niehues on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Mathias Honsak on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Köln with Luca Waldschmidt: 7.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    FC Köln: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    FC Köln: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Heidenheim with Stefan Schimmer: 7.2 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    FC Köln: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

27%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts the highest probability for a home win at 46%
  • Both teams show positive form according to Advanced Stats, Heidenheim currently scores more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.2)
  • Heidenheim's extremely high average of 2.62 goals conceded per away game could be decisive
Risk Factors
  • Heidenheim concedes an average of 2.62 goals per away game
  • The RheinEnergieStadion is known for high-scoring games with a 100% BTTS and Over 2.5 rate in the last 5 matches, indicating an open game
  • The historical H2H record shows Heidenheim dominated recent encounters
Overview

FC Köln (14th place, 32 points) host Heidenheim (18th place, 23 points) at the RheinEnergieStadion

Bundesliga match on May 10, 2026, 5:30 PM

Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle

Form

FC Köln's form in the last 5 games: DWDLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Köln recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

The last game ended in a draw

Heidenheim's form in the last 5 games: DWLWD

Heidenheim achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Heidenheim's last game also ended in a draw

Statistics

FC Köln scores an average of 1.47 goals per game this season and concedes 1.72 goals

Heidenheim scores 1.19 goals per game and concedes 2.16 goals

In home games, Köln averages 1.45 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

Heidenheim concedes an average of 2.62 goals per away game

25 out of 32 Köln games ended with both teams scoring

20 out of 32 Heidenheim games ended with both teams scoring

An average of 4.0 goals per game are scored at the RheinEnergieStadion

In the last 5 games at this venue, both teams scored every time and there were always over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, FC Köln had 0 wins and Heidenheim had 1 win

Two matches ended in a draw

Heidenheim scored a total of 7 goals, while Köln scored 4 goals

The last encounter on January 10, 2026, ended in a 2:2 draw

Historically, Heidenheim dominated the recent encounters

Key Players

For FC Köln, Said El Mala stands out with 12 season goals and 5 assists

Jakub Kamiński contributed 7 goals and 3 assists

Marius Bülter scored 4 goals and provided 4 assists

For Heidenheim, Budu Zivzivadze is the top scorer with 6 goals

Eren Dinkçi has 3 goals and 1 assist

Patrick Mainka scored 2 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Marvin Schwäbe of FC Köln kept 3 clean sheets this season

Heidenheim has achieved 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

The RheinEnergieStadion is known for high-scoring games with an average of 4.0 goals per match

In the last 5 games at this venue, both teams always scored

FC Köln performs solidly at home with an average of 1.45 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

Heidenheim concedes an average of 2.62 goals away, which weakens their defense

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.