Friendly International
England - Japan
03/31/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.6
1.0
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
England
Japan
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
50%
Draw
28%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
50%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis sees England as the winner with a 50% probability
- Form: Japan is in strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches, showing a positive offensive trend
- Tactics: England is possession-dominant (60% possession) according to the analysis, while Japan is offensively strong (averaging 6.0 shots on target in their last 5 games)
Risk Factors
- Japan had a shorter recovery period with only 3 days since their last match
- Season data for Japan is incomplete, limiting the analysis
- There is no head-to-head data available between the two teams
Overview
England hosts Japan at Wembley Stadium for a Friendly International match on March 31, 2026, 7:45 PM. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 50% probability. A draw is calculated at 28% and an away win at 22%. The model expects 1.62 goals for England and 1.01 goals for Japan.
Form
England's current form across all competitions is LWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This corresponds to 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their last 3 matches. Their last game ended in a 1-1 draw against Uruguay. Prior to that, they secured a 3-0 win against Wales and suffered a 1-3 loss against Senegal.
Japan shows stronger form with DWWWW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). Japan has achieved 4 consecutive wins recently. Their last match was a 1-0 victory against Scotland. This was preceded by wins against Bolivia (3-0), Ghana (2-0), and Brazil (3-2), as well as a 2-2 draw against Paraguay.
Statistics
England's statistics from a limited dataset of one game show 1 goal scored (average 1.0) and 1 goal conceded (average 1.0). They had 0 clean sheets, both teams scored in one game, and no game had over 2.5 goals. Complete season statistics are not available for Japan.
Wembley Stadium has seen an average of 2.5 total goals per game in 2 matches. Both teams scored in 50% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 50% of the games.
Head-to-Head
The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head matches between England and Japan.
Key Players
For England, key players could include Ben White with 1 season goal and 1 goal in his last 5 games with a rising form trend. Anthony Gordon has scored 2 goals in his last 5 appearances. Elliot Anderson recorded 1 goal in his last 5 games.
For Japan, Ayase Ueda is an important attacker with 4 goals in his last 5 games, and Junya Ito has scored 2 goals in his last 4 games. Keito Nakamura has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 matches.
Goalkeepers
England's goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has recorded 0 goals and 0 assists in 360 minutes over his last 4 games. England has not kept a clean sheet in their 1 season match. For Japan, goalkeeper Zion Suzuki has registered 0 goals and 0 assists in 270 minutes over his last 3 games. Data on clean sheets for Japan is incomplete.
Influences
England's home record shows 1 home goal scored and 1 home goal conceded in one home game. Wembley Stadium has seen an average of 2.5 total goals per game in 2 matches. Both teams scored in 50% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 50% of the games.