Friendly International

Croatia - Slovenia

06/07/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Croatia
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Slovenia
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CROSLO

Croatia

Attack weakness (0.57x league average)
-1.01
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.73
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.25
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 50, 41 places gap)
+0.11
100% of goal output missing (only 50% available)

Slovenia

Attack strength (1.2x league average)
+1.31
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-1.01
Standings disadvantage (pos 50 vs 9, 41 places gap)
-0.21
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.10
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

28%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Croatia's starting XI shows only 50% of the usual goal-scoring threat
  • Croatia conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their last three games and has two consecutive losses
  • The Stadion Anđelko Herjavec venue historically showed an average of 3.0 goals per game with 100% BTTS
Risk Factors
  • Slovenia had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Croatia recorded an average of only 2.3 shots on target in their last 3 games
  • Slovenia is missing B. Šeško (Leg Injury) and I. Vekiš (Unknown Injury)
Overview

Croatia host Slovenia in a Friendly International match at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

The game takes place on June 7, 2026, 7:45 PM

The mathematical analysis slightly favors Croatia with a 45% probability of a home win

A draw is calculated at 28%, and an away win for Slovenia at 27%

Form

Croatia's recent form is WLL, which corresponds to one win and two losses

Croatia's last two matches ended in a loss

Slovenia's recent form is LWD, with one win, one draw, and one loss

Slovenia's last game ended in a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Croatia scored an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and conceded 2.0 goals per game

Slovenia has an average of 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game

Both teams scored in two out of three of Croatia's games and two out of three of Slovenia's games

Two out of three of Croatia's games ended with over 2.5 goals, compared to one out of three for Slovenia

The Stadion Anđelko Herjavec venue, in its only recorded match, showed an average of 3.0 goals, with both teams scoring and exceeding the 2.5 goals mark

Head-to-Head

In two direct encounters to date, both Croatia and Slovenia have one win each, with zero draws

Croatia scored a total of 3 goals, while Slovenia scored 1 goal

Croatia won the last meeting on September 7, 2021, with a 3:0 score

Key Players

For Croatia, Ivan Perišić (2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 games, rising form), Andrej Kramarić (2 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games, rising form), and Martin Erlić (1 goal in last 3 games, rising form) show good performances

For Slovenia, Jaka Bijol (1 assist in last 4 games, rising form), goalkeeper Jan Oblak (average rating 7.94 in last 2 games), and Zan Vipotnik (2 season goals) are notable

Goalkeepers

Dominik Livaković, Croatia's goalkeeper, has not kept a clean sheet in 3 season appearances

Jan Oblak, Slovenia's goalkeeper, has not been in action this season

Slovenia has also not achieved any clean sheets this season

Influences

The Stadion Anđelko Herjavec venue, in its only recorded match, showed an average of 3.0 goals, with both teams scoring and exceeding the 2.5 goals mark

Slovenia scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.5 goals in away games

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