Match report →
Croatia – Slovenia2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Croatia
1.59
Total xG
2.77
Slovenia
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Croatia | Slovenia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +1.31 | |
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −1.01 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −1.01 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.73 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.25 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 50 vs 9, 41 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 50, 41 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.10 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 50% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Croatia's starting XI shows only 50% of the usual goal-scoring threat
- Croatia conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their last three games and has two consecutive losses
- The Stadion Anđelko Herjavec venue historically showed an average of 3.0 goals per game with 100% BTTS
Risks
- Slovenia had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Croatia recorded an average of only 2.3 shots on target in their last 3 games
- Slovenia is missing B. Šeško (Leg Injury) and I. Vekiš (Unknown Injury)
All probabilities
Result
Croatia45%
Draw28%
Slovenia27%
Double chance
Croatia or draw73%
Slovenia or draw55%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
Lineups
Croatia 4-2-3-1 · Slovenia 5-4-1
Croatia
- 1 D. Livaković
- 2 J. Stanisic
- 25 M. Erlić
- 3 M. Pongracic
- 4 J. Gvardiol
- 10 L. Modrić
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 24 M. Pasalic
- 9 A. Kramarić
- 14 I. Perišić
- 11 A. Budimir
Slovenia
- 1 J. Oblak
- 2 Ž. Karničnik
- 4 M. Ratnik
- 6 J. Bijol
- 21 V. Drkušić
- 13 E. Janža
- 11 T. Begić
- 22 A. Čerin
- 8 S. Lovric
- 15 D. Šturm
- 18 Ž. Vipotnik
Substitutes
- 18 K. Jakić
- 22 L. Vušković
- 20 I. Matanovic
- 5 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 21 L. Sučić
- 12 I. Pandur
- 15 M. Pašalić
- 6 J. Šutalo
- 17 P. Sučić
- 23 D. Kotarski
- 7 N. Moro
- 19 T. Fruk
- 13 N. Vlašić
- 16 M. Baturina
- 26 P. Musa
- 3 J. Urbančič
- 12 M. Vidovšek
- 26 A. Zeljković
- 16 Ž. Leban
- 10 S. Sešlar
- 9 A. Šporar
- 25 E. Sokler
- 5 S. Kuzmic
- 23 D. Brekalo
- 17 D. Zec
- 14 T. Svetlin
- 7 B. Verbič
- 19 A. Matko
- 24 T. Koren
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →