Friendly International
Mexico - Belgium
04/01/2026, 01:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.9
1.3
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Mexico
Belgium
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
27%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Mexico's Home Strength: The team averaged 2.0 goals scored and conceded 0.0 in 2 home games this season
- Belgium's Recent Offense: Belgium scored 5 goals in their last game, showcasing strong attacking form
- Mathematical Favoritism: The pipeline analysis slightly favors Mexico with a 43% win probability
Risk Factors
- Short rest for Mexico: Mexico has only 3 days since their last match
- Limited data availability: Comprehensive season data for Belgium is largely unavailable
- Reduced goal production for Mexico: Mexico's active goal production stands at 67%
Overview
Mexico host Belgium in a Friendly International match on April 1, 2026, 2:00 AM. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 43%, a draw with 27%, and an away win with 29% probability. Mexico is expected to score 1.61 goals, while Belgium is expected to score 1.29 goals.
Form
Mexico's form across all competitions is LWWWD, indicating 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). Their last match resulted in a 0-0 draw against Portugal. Belgium achieved a win in their last game, with their overall form being W.
Statistics
Mexico scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 0.0 goals in 3 season games, resulting in 3 clean sheets. In 2 home games this season, Mexico scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 0.0 goals, achieving 1 home clean sheet. Comprehensive season statistics are not available for Belgium.
Head-to-Head
No data is available for previous head-to-head encounters between Mexico and Belgium.
Key Players
For Mexico, Jesús Gallardo is a key figure with 1 goal and 1 assist and a season average rating of 7.33. Brian Gutiérrez scored 1 season goal and has an average rating of 7.17. Julián Quiñones contributed 3 goals in his last 5 games, achieving an average rating of 7.05. For Belgium, Kevin De Bruyne showed 1 goal in his last 5 games with an average rating of 6.97. Dodi Lukébakio scored 2 goals in his last 5 matches with an average rating of 7.04. Axel Witsel provided 1 assist in his last 5 games and achieved an average rating of 6.99.
Goalkeepers
Mexico's goalkeeper Raúl Rangel has a season average rating of 7.23 and contributed to 3 clean sheets this season. On the other side, Matz Sels is the Belgian goalkeeper with an average rating of 6.67 in his last 5 games.
Influences
Mexico displays a very stable defense in home games, conceding 0.0 goals in 2 home games this season. No specific away statistics are available for Belgium.