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Switzerland – Jordan4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Switzerland
2.27
Total xG
3.41
Jordan
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Switzerland | Jordan |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.19x league average) | +1.33 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | −0.89 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.55 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.47 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.45 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 62 vs 17, 45 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 17 vs 62, 45 places gap) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Switzerland with a 62% probability
- Switzerland shows strong current attacking form with an average of 3.67 goals per game
- Jordan has weaker current form, having not won any of their last five matches (3 draws, 2 losses)
Risks
- Jordan will be without Amer Jamous (Unknown Injury)
- The pipeline analysis predicts a 62% probability that both teams will score
- Jordan averages 2.0 goals per game this season and has not failed to score in any single season match
All probabilities
Result
Switzerland62%
Draw21%
Jordan17%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Double chance
Switzerland or draw83%
Jordan or draw38%
No draw79%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
2:1
10%
1:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Jordan with Yazan Alarab: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Switzerland 3-4-3 · Jordan 5-3-2
Switzerland
- 12 Y. Mvogo
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 5 M. Akanji
- 4 N. Elvedi
- 11 D. Ndoye
- 8 R. Freuler
- 10 G. Xhaka
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 9 J. Manzambi
- 7 B. Embolo
- 17 R. Vargas
Jordan
- 1 Y. Abu laila
- 23 E. Haddad
- 19 S. Salameh Al Rosan
- 5 Y. Alarab
- 16 M. Abualnadi
- 20 M. Abu Taha
- 21 N. Al-Rashdan
- 8 N. Al Rawabdeh
- 13 M. Al Mardi
- 10 M. Al Tamari
- 9 A. Olwan
Substitutes
- 22 F. Rieder
- 2 M. Muheim
- 1 G. Kobel
- 24 A. Amenda
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 21 M. Keller
- 25 L. Jaquez
- 3 S. Widmer
- 15 D. Sow
- 18 E. Cömert
- 13 R. Rodríguez Araya
- 19 N. Okafor
- 23 M. Amdouni
- 14 A. Jasari
- 26 C. Itten
- 24 A. Azaizeh
- 12 N. Khaleel Bani Ateyah
- 4 H. Abudahab
- 11 O. Shehade Fakhoury
- 17 S. Obaid
- 15 I. Sami
- 7 M. Abu Zrayq
- 22 A. Alfakhori
- 25 M. Mohammad Al Daoud
- 18 I. Abdallah Sabra
- 14 R. Hasan
- 2 M. Hasan Abu Hasheesh
- 26 Y. Qashi
- 27 M. Taha
- 28 Anas Badawi
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