Friendly International

Brazil - Egypt

06/06/2026, 10:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Brazil
1.9
Total xG
3.2
Egypt
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
BRAEGY

Brazil

Attack strength (1.46x league average)
-1.04
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+1.03
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 35, 29 places gap)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.06
Full strength squad available

Egypt

Attack strength (1.84x league average)
+1.12
Defensive strength (0.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.68
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.62
Standings disadvantage (pos 35 vs 6, 29 places gap)
-0.24
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.02
Zizo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.36
+0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Brazil: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Egypt: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Egypt with Emam Ashour: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)

  • 4
    Brazil: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)

  • 5
    Brazil with Douglas Santos: 3.8 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (4 of 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

25%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Favorite status: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Brazil with 49%
  • Offensive strength: Brazil averages 3.33 goals per home game and recently had an average of 6.4 shots on target
  • Egypt's defense: Egypt has conceded an average of 0.00 goals per game this season and achieved 3 clean sheets
Risk Factors
  • Limited data available for head-to-head matches
Overview

Brazil host Egypt in a Friendly International at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho on June 6, 2026, 12:00 AM

The mathematical analysis indicates Brazil as favorites with a 49% chance of winning

Form

Brazil (WDLWW) has a recent form of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches

Their last result was a 6-2 victory against Panama

Egypt (DWWDW) is undefeated in their last five matches with 3 wins and 2 draws

Their last result was a 1-0 victory against Russia

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Brazil averages 3.33 goals scored per game and concedes 1.67 goals per game this season

Egypt displays strong defensive performance with an average of 0.00 goals conceded per game and 3 clean sheets

The Egyptians scored an average of 1.67 goals per game this season

Matches at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho average 4.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of matches at this venue, and 100% finished with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head matches between Brazil and Egypt are available in the dataset

Key Players

For Brazil, Lucas Paquetá (1 goal, 1 assist), Vinicius Junior (1 goal, 2 assists), and Igor Thiago (2 goals, 1 assist) are key attacking players this season

Lucas Paquetá has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in 9 games at this venue

Vinicius Junior has scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in 2 stadium appearances

Igor Thiago has 1 goal and 1 assist in 2 games at the stadium

Egypt's Mahmoud Trezeguet (1 goal) and Omar Marmoush (1 goal) are attacking players with season goals

Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf scored 1 goal in his only season appearance

Goalkeepers

Brazil's goalkeeper is Alisson, who has no clean sheets this season

Oufa Shobeir is Egypt's goalkeeper, with 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho is known for high-scoring games, averaging 4.2 goals per match

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 100% of matches at this stadium

Brazil scored an average of 3.33 goals and conceded 1.67 goals in home matches

Egypt showed strong defense in away games, conceding an average of 0.00 goals and scoring 2.00 goals

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