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Brazil – Egypt2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Brazil
1.90
Total xG
3.24
Egypt
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brazil | Egypt |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.84x league average) | +1.12 | |
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | −1.04 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +1.03 | |
| Defensive strength (0.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.68 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.62 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 35 vs 6, 29 places gap) | −0.24 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 35, 29 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Zizo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Favorite status: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Brazil with 49%
- Offensive strength: Brazil averages 3.33 goals per home game and recently had an average of 6.4 shots on target
- Egypt's defense: Egypt has conceded an average of 0.00 goals per game this season and achieved 3 clean sheets
Risks
- Limited data available for head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
Brazil49%
Draw25%
Egypt26%
Double chance
Brazil or draw74%
Egypt or draw51%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brazil: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Egypt: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Egypt with Emam Ashour: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)
- Brazil: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)
- Brazil with Douglas Santos: 3.8 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (4 of 7 games)
Lineups
Brazil 4-4-2 · Egypt 4-2-3-1
Brazil
- 1 A. Becker
- 4 M. Aoás Corrêa
- 24 R. Ibañez da Silva
- 16 D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 8 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 2 W. França Lima
- 20 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 11 Raphinha
- 7 V. Júnior
- 25 Thiago
Egypt
- 23 M. Shobeir
- 3 M. Hany Eldemerdash
- 2 Y. Ibrahim El Hanafi
- 14 H. Fathi
- 13 A. Aboel Fettoh
- 17 M. Lasheen
- 19 M. Attia
- 12 H. Hassan
- 11 M. Zaki Abdelraouf
- 7 M. Hassan
- 22 O. Marmoush
Substitutes
- 19 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 9 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
- 3 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 22 G. Martinelli Silva
- 14 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 23 E. Santana de Moraes
- 26 R. Rocha
- 17 F. Tavares
- 13 D. da Silva
- 6 A. Lobo Silva
- 21 L. Rosa da Silva
- 12 W. Pereira da Silva
- 18 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 15 L. Pereira
- 6 M. Abdelmonem
- 10 M. Salah
- 20 I. Adel
- 18 N. Emad
- 24 T. Alaa
- 16 A. Soliman
- 26 M. Alaa
- 21 M. Saber
- 4 H. Abdelmaguid
- 8 E. Ashour
- 1 M. El Shenawy
- 5 R. Rabia
- 25 A. Sayed
- 15 K. Ramadan Seif El Din
- 9 H. Abdel Karim
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