Friendly International

Mexico - Australia

05/31/2026, 02:00 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Mexico
1.7
Total xG
3.1
Australia
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MEXAUS

Mexico

Defensive strength (0.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-1.21
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.14
Standings advantage (pos 14 vs 25, 11 places gap)
+0.09
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Armando González not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Jesús Gallardo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Brian Gutiérrez not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 50% available)

Australia

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+1.35
Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.53
Standings disadvantage (pos 25 vs 14, 11 places gap)
-0.17
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Australia: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Australia with Alessandro Circati: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Mexico with Brian Gutiérrez: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Mexico: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)

  • 5
    Australia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

26%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Critical Squad Gap: Mexico has only 50% of their usual starting XI goal threat available without Armando González, Jesús Gallardo, and Brian Gutiérrez
  • Mexico's Strong Home Record: With 1.40 goals scored and only 0.20 goals conceded in home games, Mexico is tough to beat at home
  • Mexico's Current Form: The team is unbeaten in 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws
Risk Factors
  • Limited Data Availability: Historical head-to-head matches are missing, affecting predictability
  • Untested Away Performance: Australia has not played any away games this season
  • Missing xG Data: 3 out of 5 xG data points for Australia's recent games are missing, limiting efficiency analysis
Overview

Mexico hosts Australia in a Friendly International at the Rose Bowl on May 31, 2026, 3:00 AM

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 44% probability

A draw is calculated at 26% and an away win at 30%

The model expects 1.73 goals for Mexico and 1.41 goals for Australia

Form

Mexico shows good form with W W D D W (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last 5 games

Their last win was a 2-0 against Ghana

Australia has mixed form with L L L W W (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses) in their last 5 matches

Their last two games were won 5-1 against Curacao and 1-0 against Cameroon

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Mexico scored an average of 1.50 goals and conceded only 0.17 goals per game in 6 matches

The team kept 5 clean sheets and scored 1.40 goals while conceding 0.20 goals in 5 home games

Australia has a goal average of 3.00 and conceded 0.50 goals per game in 2 matches

Australia kept 1 clean sheet

The mathematical analysis predicts a 64% probability for both teams to score

The model calculates a 61% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head matches between Mexico and Australia are available in the provided dataset

Key Players

For Mexico, Guillermo Martínez Ayala is currently in rising form with 4 goals in the last 5 games

Alexis Vega contributed 2 assists in his last 5 appearances and shows rising form

Mateo Chávez scored one goal in his last 3 appearances and his form is rising

For Australia, Jacob Italiano showed rising form in 4 of the last 5 games with 3 goals

Jordan Bos has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist this season

Mohamed Touré scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

Goalkeepers

Mexico's goalkeeper Raúl Rangel appeared in 6 season games and kept 5 clean sheets

Australia's goalkeeper Mathew Ryan played 2 season games and kept a clean sheet in 1 match

Influences

Mexico shows a strong home average of 1.40 goals scored and only 0.20 goals conceded

Data regarding venue and weather influences is limited

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