Match report →
Mexico – Australia1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Mexico
1.73
Total xG
3.14
Australia
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mexico | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +1.35 | |
| Defensive strength (0.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −1.21 | |
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.53 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 25 vs 14, 11 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 14 vs 25, 11 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Armando González not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jesús Gallardo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brian Gutiérrez not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 50% available) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical Squad Gap: Mexico has only 50% of their usual starting XI goal threat available without Armando González, Jesús Gallardo, and Brian Gutiérrez
- Mexico's Strong Home Record: With 1.40 goals scored and only 0.20 goals conceded in home games, Mexico is tough to beat at home
- Mexico's Current Form: The team is unbeaten in 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws
Risks
- Limited Data Availability: Historical head-to-head matches are missing, affecting predictability
- Untested Away Performance: Australia has not played any away games this season
- Missing xG Data: 3 out of 5 xG data points for Australia's recent games are missing, limiting efficiency analysis
All probabilities
Result
Mexico44%
Draw26%
Australia30%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
Mexico or draw70%
Australia or draw56%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Australia: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Australia with Alessandro Circati: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Mexico with Brian Gutiérrez: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Mexico: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)
- Australia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Mexico 4-2-3-1 · Australia 5-4-1
Mexico
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 2 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 4 E. Álvarez Velázquez
- 5 J. Vásquez Ibarra
- 20 M. Chávez García
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 24 L. Chávez Magallón
- 17 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 8 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 10 E. Vega Rojas
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
Australia
- 1 M. Ryan
- 23 J. Italiano
- 3 A. Circati
- 19 H. Souttar
- 26 L. Herrington
- 5 J. Bos
- 7 M. Leckie
- 22 J. Irvine
- 13 A. O'Neill
- 8 C. Metcalfe
- 9 M. Toure
Substitutes
- 21 C. Huerta Valera
- 11 S. Giménez
- 18 O. Vaargas
- 15 I. Reyes Romero
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 14 A. González Alba
- 23 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 26 B. Gutierrez
- 12 C. Acevedo López
- 27 K. Castañeda Vargas
- 16 J. Quiñones Quiñones
- 13 F. Ochoa Magaña
- 19 G. Mora Zambrano
- 3 C. Montes Castro
- 28 J. Gómez Molina
- 38 A. Mabil
- 21 C. Burgess
- 11 N. Irankunda
- 6 M. Boyle
- 10 A. Hrustic
- 12 P. Izzo
- 4 K. Rowles
- 36 K. Trewin
- 16 A. Behich
- 2 M. Degenek
- 20 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 25 J. Geria
- 34 N. Velupillay
- 28 P. Beach
- 17 C. Devlin
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