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Mexico – Serbia5 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Mexico
2.11
Total xG
2.79
Serbia
0.68
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mexico | Serbia |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −1.36 | |
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.86 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.60 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.36 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 14 vs 34, 20 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 34 vs 14, 20 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Favorites: Mexico has a high win probability of 69% according to mathematical analysis
- Critical absences: Serbia's starting XI is severely weakened, with only 0% of usual strength available
- Form difference: Mexico is unbeaten in 5 matches, while Serbia has suffered 2 losses in their last 3 games
Risks
- Serbia's defensive vulnerability: Averaging 2.33 goals conceded per game this season
- Limited data: No historical head-to-head matches available
All probabilities
Result
Mexico69%
Draw21%
Serbia10%
Double chance
Mexico or draw90%
Serbia or draw31%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
2:0
14%
1:1
10%
3:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
5:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Mexico: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Mexico with Israel Reyes: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Mexico 4-1-4-1 · Serbia 4-2-3-1
Mexico
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 2 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 3 C. Montes Castro
- 5 J. Vásquez Ibarra
- 23 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 26 B. Gutierrez
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 8 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 16 J. Quiñones Quiñones
- 9 R. Jiménez Rodríguez
Serbia
- 1 F. Stankovic
- 26 V. Đurđević
- 16 S. Eraković
- 4 N. Simić
- 25 S. Bukinac
- 10 A. Stankovic
- 6 V. Dragojević
- 11 L. Ranđelović
- 24 P. Stanić
- 21 V. Lučić
- 18 N. Štulić
Substitutes
- 4 E. Álvarez Velázquez
- 21 C. Huerta Valera
- 17 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 20 M. Chávez García
- 11 S. Giménez
- 18 O. Vaargas
- 15 I. Reyes Romero
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
- 14 A. González Alba
- 12 C. Acevedo López
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 13 F. Ochoa Magaña
- 19 G. Mora Zambrano
- 10 E. Vega Rojas
- 24 L. Chávez Magallón
- 17 K. Nedeljković
- 20 A. Maksimović
- 19 M. Ivanović
- 2 O. Mimović
- 15 A. Avdić
- 22 V. Kostov
- 8 D. Zukić
- 23 L. Lijeskic
- 7 V. Birmančević
- 12 V. Ilic
- 5 N. Petrović
- 3 P. Petrović
- 13 M. Milikic
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