Friendly International
Mexico - Serbia
06/05/2026, 02:00 AM
Expected Goals
2.1
2.8
0.7
2:0
14%1:1
10%3:0
10%2:1
9%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Mexico
Serbia
League
The Lab
- 1Mexico: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- 2Mexico with Israel Reyes: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
69%
Draw
21%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
31%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Favorites: Mexico has a high win probability of 69% according to mathematical analysis
- Critical absences: Serbia's starting XI is severely weakened, with only 0% of usual strength available
- Form difference: Mexico is unbeaten in 5 matches, while Serbia has suffered 2 losses in their last 3 games
Risk Factors
- Serbia's defensive vulnerability: Averaging 2.33 goals conceded per game this season
- Limited data: No historical head-to-head matches available
Overview
Mexico will host Serbia in a Friendly International match on June 5, 2026, at 4:00 AM CEST, at Estadio Nemesio Díez. The mathematical analysis places Mexico as the favorite, with a 69% probability of winning. The model predicts 2.11 expected goals for Mexico and 0.68 for Serbia.
Form
Mexico is in good form with a WDDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) record from 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches. They recently secured 1-0 and 2-0 victories against Australia and Ghana, respectively. Serbia, on the other hand, shows a LWL form with 1 win and 2 losses in their last 3 games. Their most recent result was a 0-3 loss against Cape Verde Islands.
Statistics
Mexico has scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded only 0.17 goals in their 6 home games this season. Serbia has played 0 away games this season. Across all 3 season matches, Serbia has averaged 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 goals conceded. At Estadio Nemesio Díez, the last 5 matches saw an average of 2.8 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 games (80%). Over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games (40%).
Head-to-Head
The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between Mexico and Serbia.
Key Players
For Mexico, key players include Brian Gutiérrez with 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 of 5 games and rising form, Julián Quiñones with 5 goals in 4 of 5 games, and Johan Vásquez with 2 goals in 3 of 5 games. For Serbia, Nikola Stulic stands out with 1 goal in 2 games played in only 18 minutes. Strahinja Erakovic shows a rising form trend, and Aleksandar Stanković is in stable form.
Goalkeepers
Mexico's goalkeeper Raúl Rangel has recorded 6 clean sheets this season. Serbia's goalkeeper Filip Stanković has not kept any clean sheets this season.
Influences
Estadio Nemesio Díez typically sees an average of 2.8 goals per match. 80% of the last 5 games at this venue featured both teams scoring. Mexico benefits from a strong home advantage, averaging 1.33 goals scored and only 0.17 goals conceded in home matches.