Friendly International

Senegal - Gambia

03/31/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Senegal
2.0
Total xG
3.2
Gambia
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

7%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SENGAM

Senegal

Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.39
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.14
Standings advantage (pos 18 vs 115, 97 places gap)
+0.14
Full strength squad available

Gambia

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
Standings disadvantage (pos 115 vs 18, 97 places gap)
-0.21
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.62
+0.62
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

24%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Senegal is the favorite with a home win probability of 55% according to mathematical analysis
  • Senegal shows rising form with two consecutive wins
  • Senegal consistently scores around 2.3 goals per game according to advanced statistics
Risk Factors
  • Senegal has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Senegal averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Gambia has several absentees, including E. Adams (Knee Injury), A. Fadera (Unknown Injury), A. Sowe (Muscle Injury), and M. Jatta (Visa Issues)
Overview

Senegal hosts Gambia in a Friendly International match on March 31, 2026, 8:00 PM

The mathematical analysis indicates Senegal as favorites with a 55% home win probability

Gambia's win probability stands at only 21%

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Senegal's form in the last five matches is LLLWW

This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 losses

The last result was a win

Gambia has a form of WD in recent matches

This consists of 1 win and 1 draw

The last result was a draw

Statistics

Senegal averaged 2.0 goals per game and conceded 0.0 goals per game this season (based on one home match)

Senegal consistently scores around 2.3 goals per game according to advanced statistics

Gambia consistently scores around 2.0 goals per game according to advanced statistics

Data availability for Gambia's season averages is limited

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any previous direct encounters between these two teams

Key Players

For Senegal, IsmaĆÆla Sarr is a key player, scoring 5 goals in the last 5 games

Cherif Ndiaye showed strong form with 2 goals in the last 5 games

Assane DiaoĀ contributes to the offense with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

For Gambia, Yankuba Minteh scored 1 goal in the last 3 games

Abubakr Barry contributed 1 goal in the last 4 games

Sheriff Sinyan also scored 1 goal in the last 4 games

Goalkeepers

Senegal's goalkeeper Yehvann Diouf has achieved 1 clean sheet in 1 home game this season

Gambia's goalkeeper Baboucarr Gaye has an average rating of 6.72 in the last 5 games

Influences

Senegal scored 2.0 goals and conceded 0.0 goals in their single home game

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